新兴经济体中燃料和石油价格对通胀和通胀预期的不对称影响

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108519

Magdalena Szyszko , Agata Kliber

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文确定了石油和燃料价格的不对称影响以及供应链对捷克、匈牙利和波兰通胀和消费者通胀预期的压力。研究期间包括COVID-19和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的开始（2017-2022）。我们比较了严重依赖俄罗斯石油的V-3国家。我们估计了非线性ARDL模型和多阈值ARDL，以验证油价（燃料价格或全球供应链压力）与通胀或预期之间是否存在长期关系。我们发现了不对称反应。然而，在样本国家中不存在可比较的模式。

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The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies

This article determines the asymmetric impact of oil and fuel prices and the pressure in supply chains on inflation and consumer inflation expectations in Czechia, Hungary and Poland. The research period covers COVID-19 and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2017–2022). We compare the V-3 countries, which are heavily dependent on Russian oil. We estimate the nonlinear ARDL model and multithreshold ARDL to verify whether long-run relationships exist between oil prices (fuel prices or the pressure in global supply chains) and inflation or expectations. We find asymmetric reactions. However, no comparable pattern exists across the sample countries.

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.