Waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio are better predictors of body mass index changes in adolescents in Ho Chi Minh City.

Background: This study was conducted to assess the correlation between baseline waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), triceps skinfold thickness (TSFT) and subscapular skinfold thickness (SSFT) with body mass index (BMI) at follow-up and to identify the anthropometric parameters accounting for the highest proportion of the BMI variation among junior high school students in Ho Chi Minh City.

Methods: This was a 5-y prospective cohort study; 761 students were followed annually. Data collected included height, weight, WC, TSFT and SSFT. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to investigate the correlations between baseline anthropometric parameters with BMI at follow-up. Multilevel mixed-effect models with linear regression analyses and Poisson regression were used to assess the relationship between all listed variables with BMI changes as well as the risk of being overweight/obesity.

Results: BMI, WC, TSFT, SSFT, WHtR, the sum of four skinfold thicknesses and % body fat at baseline were all strongly correlated with BMI at follow-up (p<0.001). Among multiple linear regression models, the models with WC or WHtR accounted for the highest variation in BMI changes (approximately 74.5%) (p<0.001), while the model with WHR explained only 22.7% of the variation in BMI changes.

Conclusion: WC is a simple anthropometric indicator, which can be easily used to assess adiposity and is significantly associated with BMI changes over time.