Modeling the potential public health and economic impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies using an adapted COVID-19 vaccine in Mexico.

Background: This study evaluated the impact of vaccination strategies using an adapted COVID-19 vaccine in Mexico.

Research design and methods: This study used a previously published combined Markov-decision tree model adapted for the Mexican context. The base case examined the population aged ≥ 65 years and the high-risk population (defined as those with one or more comorbidities associated with high risk of severe disease) aged 12-64 years. Scenario analyses examined lower age cutoffs for eligibility in the standard risk population (≥50 years, ≥18 years, and ≥12 years). Sensitivity analyses varying the parameters by ± 20% was conducted to assess uncertainty.

Results: Compared to no vaccination, the base case was estimated to prevent 1,509,194 cases, 132,166 hospitalizations 24,575 deaths, and 276,223 lost quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), increasing direct costs by $602,446,820 and decreasing societal cost by $2,264,266,271. The ICER was dominant from the societal perspective and $2,181 from the payer perspective, which was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1× GDP per capita ($11,812). The benefits were further increased in scenarios expanding vaccination to additional age groups.

Conclusions: Vaccination strategies targeting a broader age range with an adapted vaccine would result in considerable health and economic benefits and be cost-effective in Mexico.