1992年至2021年育龄妇女PUD的全球、区域和国家负担:基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的趋势分析

IF 2.3 Q2 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY
Frontiers in global women's health Pub Date : 2025-04-01 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fgwh.2025.1529549
Xiaofeng Wang, Song Yang, Shanzhi Zhao, Zhitao Yang, Enqiang Mao, Erzhen Chen, Ying Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:消化性溃疡疾病(PUD)是一个重要的全球健康问题,特别是育龄妇女(WCBA),她们面临严重妊娠相关并发症的风险升高。本研究旨在绘制该人群PUD的时间动态图并预测其未来发病率,为有针对性的预防和控制措施提供信息。方法:该分析借鉴了全球疾病、损伤和危险因素负担研究(GBD) 2021,提取了WCBA 7个年龄组(15-49岁)的PUD发病率和死亡率数据。采用年龄标准化直接法计算年龄标准化发病率和死亡率。采用结合点回归分析1992 - 2021年的时间趋势。该研究进一步采用年龄-时期-队列分析来区分这些变量对发病率和死亡率的影响,并采用前沿分析来评估各国根据发展状况可能减少的负担。Nordpred模型用于预测到2044年的流行病学趋势。结果:2021年,WCBA中PUD的全球年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和死亡率(ASDR)分别为24.18 / 10万(95% CI: 14.72-36.38)和0.54 / 10万(95% CI: 0.42-0.66)。大洋洲的发病率最高,而南亚的死亡率最高。1992年至2021年期间,全球年龄标准化死亡率大幅下降。相反,在最初的下降之后,年龄标准化发病率开始上升,具有相当大的区域和国家具体差异。这一增长在社会人口指数高的区域尤为明显。前沿分析表明,处于SDI中间五分位数的国家或地区在提高医疗保健的可及性和质量方面具有巨大的未开发潜力。尽管预测年龄标准化发病率和死亡率将下降,但预计到2044年,总病例数将继续小幅上升。结论:该研究强调了WCBA患者PUD趋势在全球范围内的巨大差异,随着病例数量的增加和地区的不平等。研究结果强调需要关注高SDI地区和老年WCBA人群,以完善疾病管理和预防策略,帮助减轻PUD对公共卫生的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global, regional, and national burdens of PUD in women of reproductive age from 1992 to 2021: a trend analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

Background: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) constitutes a significant global health concern, particularly in women of childbearing age (WCBA), who face elevated risks of severe pregnancy-associated complications. This investigation aimed to map the temporal dynamics and forecast the future incidence of PUD in this demographic to inform targeted prevention and control initiatives.

Methods: This analysis drew on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, extracting data on PUD incidence and mortality across seven age groups (15-49 years) in WCBA. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the direct method of age standardization. Temporal trends from 1992 to 2021 were analyzed using joinpoint regression. The study further employed age-period-cohort analysis to discriminate the effects of these variables on incidence and mortality, and frontier analysis to evaluate potential reductions in burden by country based on developmental status. Nordpred modeling was used to project epidemiological trends up to 2044.

Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and death rates (ASDR) for PUD among WCBA were 24.18 per 100,000 (95% CI: 14.72-36.38) and 0.54 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.42-0.66), respectively. The highest incidence rates were observed in Oceania, while the greatest mortality rates were recorded in South Asia. Over the period from 1992 to 2021, global age-standardized mortality rates showed a significant decline. Conversely, after an initial drop, age-standardized incidence rates began to rise, with considerable regional and country-specific variation. This increase was particularly marked in regions with high Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Frontier analyses indicate that countries or regions in the middle SDI quintiles possess significant untapped potential to enhance both access to and quality of healthcare. Despite predictions of declining age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, total case numbers are expected to continue rising modestly through 2044.

Conclusions: The study underscores substantial global disparities in PUD trends in WCBA, with increasing case numbers and regional inequalities. The findings highlight the need for focused attention on high SDI regions and older WCBA cohorts to refine disease management and prevention strategies, aiding in the mitigation of PUD's public health impact.

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