{"title":"利用时间序列分析对2024年日本诺托半岛地震后自杀行为的短期初步评估。","authors":"Takahiro Arai","doi":"10.1027/0227-5910/a001003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b></b> <i>Background</i>: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. <i>Aim</i>: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the <i>pulling together effect</i> or <i>honeymoon phase</i> in suicide trends. <i>Method</i>: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. <i>Results</i>: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. <i>Limitations</i>: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. <i>Conclusion</i>: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":47943,"journal":{"name":"Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention","volume":" ","pages":"218-224"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12288478/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Takahiro Arai\",\"doi\":\"10.1027/0227-5910/a001003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p><b></b> <i>Background</i>: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. <i>Aim</i>: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the <i>pulling together effect</i> or <i>honeymoon phase</i> in suicide trends. <i>Method</i>: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. <i>Results</i>: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. <i>Limitations</i>: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. <i>Conclusion</i>: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47943,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"218-224\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12288478/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1027/0227-5910/a001003\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/4/30 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHIATRY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Crisis-The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1027/0227-5910/a001003","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/4/30 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PSYCHIATRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis.
Background: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. Aim: This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase in suicide trends. Method: Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. Results: Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. Limitations: Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. Conclusion: This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.
期刊介绍：
A must for all who need to keep up on the latest findings from both basic research and practical experience in the fields of suicide prevention and crisis intervention! This well-established periodical’s reputation for publishing important articles on suicidology and crisis intervention from around the world is being further enhanced with the move to 6 issues per year (previously 4) in 2010. But over and above its scientific reputation, Crisis also publishes potentially life-saving information for all those involved in crisis intervention and suicide prevention, making it important reading for clinicians, counselors, hotlines, and crisis intervention centers.
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