Risk assessment of postoperative atelectasis in elderly lung cancer patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery based on a nomogram model.

Background: Lung cancer is a leading cause of death in the elderly. Thoracoscopic surgery, though minimally invasive, poses a greater risk of postoperative atelectasis in this group owing to age and comorbidities. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for atelectasis in elderly lung cancer patients and develop a nomogram model for clinical prediction.

Methods: Clinical data from 322 elderly patients with lung cancer were retrospectively analysed and split into a training set (n = 226) and a validation set (n = 96) at a 7:3 ratio. Independent risk factors for postoperative atelectasis were identified via univariate and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram prediction model was constructed and evaluated for discrimination (ROC curves), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis, DCA).

Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent risk factors for postoperative atelectasis (P < 0.05) were age ≥ 70 years, a smoking history, decreased preoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and lobectomy. The areas under the ROC curves of the nomogram model were 0.826 (95% CI: 0.767-0.885) and 0.918 (95% CI: 0.802-0.991) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated a strong consistency between the predicted and observed outcomes. The DCA curves revealed that the model provided a high net clinical benefit when the threshold probability ranged from 0.07 to 0.60, with a maximum net benefit of 73%.

Conclusion: The independent risk factors identified for postoperative atelectasis in elderly lung cancer patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery are age ≥ 70 years, smoking history, reduced preoperative FEV1, and lobectomy.