[Carbon Emission and Scenario Prediction of Water System in Zhejiang Based on the Whole Life Cycle of Water Resources].

Clarifying the "water-energy-carbon" nexus process and variation in the carbon emissions of a water system throughout the lifecycle of water resources is crucial for regional water resource management, energy-efficient utilization, and low-carbon development. This study introduces a comprehensive analytical framework for assessing carbon emissions across the entire lifecycle of water resources, grounded in the "water-energy-carbon" nexus. Utilizing statistical data from 2011 to 2021, the research analyzed the dynamic changes in carbon emissions in the water system in Zhejiang. Additionally, the STIRPAT model was employed to forecast carbon emissions from 2022 to 2040. The results showed that： ① The carbon emissions of the water system in Zhejiang mainly exhibited an "upward-downward-upward" trend, with an increase of 2.687 7 million tons in 2011-2012 and 4.888 4 million tons in 2020-2021, respectively, and a decrease of 11.371 6 million tons from 2012 to 2020. ② The carbon emissions of the water system in Zhejiang accounted for more than 95%, which had a decisive impact on the total change in the carbon emissions of the water system. ③ Urbanization rate was a key driving factor for changes in carbon emissions across various water system sectors, while population primarily affected carbon emissions from industrial and residential domestic water use. ④ The carbon emissions from the water system were at the lowest level under the low-carbon scenario and at the highest level under the extensive or coarse development scenario. Residential and public facility water consumption will be the main source of carbon emissions in the water system in the Zhejiang Province. Therefore, while controlling population growth and promoting urbanization, carrying out water-saving and emission reduction measures, including improving water use efficiency, optimizing the structure of water use, and reducing carbon emission intensity are necessary to effectively promote carbon reduction in the water system.