Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to metabolic risks: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2021.

Background: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) represents the most significant disease burden among all cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The increasing prevalence of metabolic risks in the 21^st century has a profound impact on the disease burden associated with IHD. We analyzed the global, regional, and national burdens of IHD attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021.

Methods: The data were taken from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. Deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the average annual percent change (AAPC), age-standardized death rates per 100,000 persons (ASDR) and age-standardized rate per 100,000 persons (ASR) of DALYs ranging from 1990 to 2021, were extracted and stratified according to region, nationality, socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Additionally, the global future trends were predicted using Nordpred prediction model.

Results: Compared to 1990, in 2021, the number of death and DALYs from metabolic risk-attributed IHD increased globally by 67.35% and 59.91%, respectively; whereas ASDR and ASR of DALYs showed a decreasing trend and the most severe impact was observed in male and elderly populations. In addition, the burden of disease showed an inverted V-shaped relationship with SDI from 1990 to 2021. AAPC showed a significant increase in developing countries and a decrease in developed countries. We also analyzed the effects of different risk factors including metabolic risk factors on IHD in different SDI regions and genders. The prediction of future disease burden showed that the number of death and DALYs will keep rising, while ASDR and ASR of DALYs will maintain a certain downward trend.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlighted the need for screening and intervention for metabolic risk factors in specific regions and populations, this should call for increased collaboration between developing and developed countries to reduce the burden of disease and improve the prognosis of patients with IHD.