1990-2021年全球、区域和国家儿童和青少年胰腺炎负担:对2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析

Annals of medicine Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-06 DOI:10.1080/07853890.2025.2499699
Derong Lin, Yue Li, Jingya Fang, Xiaohua Xie, Bin Zhang, Xiaolin Ye, Yiheng Huang, Xiaowen Zhang, Aiguo Xue
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:胰腺炎是一项重大的全球健康负担,对儿童和青少年的影响尤为严重。本研究使用全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021数据集来评估这一人口统计学中的胰腺炎流行病学,重点关注年龄、性别和地区的差异。目的:评估全球儿童胰腺炎的趋势,确定危险因素,并预测到2035年的疾病负担。方法:我们分析了GBD 2021关于20岁以下个体胰腺炎死亡和残疾调整生命年(DALYs)的数据。社会人口指数(SDI)评估了社会发展与健康结果之间的联系。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型和泊松线性模型应用于预测未来负担和估计年龄标准化率的年百分比变化(EAPCs)。结果:2021年,胰腺炎在儿童和青少年中造成1120.09人死亡,占所有胰腺炎相关死亡的2%。年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)和DALYs率从1990年到2021年下降(EAPC分别为-0.92和-0.86)。中低SDI区域,特别是安第斯山脉和中拉丁美洲以及东欧,面临的负担最重。酒精是主要危险因素,占相关死亡的3.51%,男性的死亡率和伤残调整年率更高。结论:尽管胰腺炎相关死亡率和DALYs下降,但该疾病仍然是一个挑战,特别是在中低SDI地区。饮酒是一个关键的风险因素,因此需要采取有针对性的公共卫生干预措施。针对性别、年龄和区域的策略对于减轻儿童和青少年胰腺炎的影响至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global, regional and national burden of pancreatitis in children and adolescents, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Background: Pancreatitis poses a significant global health burden, disproportionately affecting children and adolescents. This study uses the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to evaluate pancreatitis epidemiology in this demographic, focusing on disparities by age, sex, and region.

Objective: To assess global trends in pediatric pancreatitis, identify risk factors, and forecast disease burden to 2035.

Methods: We analysed GBD 2021 data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for pancreatitis in individuals under 20. The socio-demographic index (SDI) assessed the link between societal development and health outcomes. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modelling and Poisson's linear models were applied to project future burdens and estimate annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in age-standardized rates.

Results: In 2021, pancreatitis caused 1120.09 deaths in children and adolescents, comprising 2% of all pancreatitis-related deaths. Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and DALYs rate declined from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC -0.92 and -0.86, respectively). Low-middle SDI regions, notably Andean and Central Latin America and Eastern Europe, faced the highest burden. Alcohol was a leading risk factor, accounting for 3.51% of related deaths, and males had higher death and DALYs rate.

Conclusions: Despite declining pancreatitis-related mortality and DALYs, the disease remains a challenge, particularly in low-middle SDI regions. Alcohol consumption is a key risk factor, underscoring the need for targeted public health interventions. Gender-, age-, and region-specific strategies are essential to mitigate pancreatitis impact in children and adolescents.

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