Predictive factors for the progression of multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis.

Introduction: This meta-analysis systematically explored predictive factors for the progression of multiple sclerosis (MS).

Methods: Computerized searches were conducted in Pubmed, OVID, Web of science, Willey Library, and EMbase from inception to August 2023. Patients with MS were divided into the deterioration group, defined as those with an increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≥ 1.0 for a baseline EDSS ≤ 5.5 or ≥ 0.5 for a baseline EDSS > 5.5 during the follow-up period, and the non-deterioration group, comprising patients who exhibited no significant changes in EDSS over the same period. This study analyzed the impact of specific predictors, including age at onset, sex (male), smoking status, disease duration, number of relapses, EDSS score, prodromal neurological symptoms, and the use of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) on MS progression.

Results: Of 3647 retrieved, 14 studies were finally included. Meta-analysis showed that sex (male) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-1.26, P < 0.01], smoking [OR = 1.92, 95%CI: 1.41-2.60, P < 0.01], relapses frequency [OR = 1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.08, P < 0.01], EDSS score [OR = 1.54, 95%CI: 1.10-2.15, P = 0.01], and DMTs use [OR = 0.38, 95%CI: 0.26-0.55, P < 0.01] significant influenced MS progression, while age at onset, disease duration, and prodromal neurological symptoms were not significant.

Conclusion: Sex (male), smoking, a higher number of relapses, EDSS score, and DMTs are predictors of MS deterioration. Hence, particular attention should be given to these risk factors when assessing MS deterioration.