Sydney DeWinter, Grace K Nichol, Christopher Fernandez-Prada, Amy L Greer, J Scott Weese, Katie M Clow
{"title":"评估目前和未来在北美地区的生态适宜性。","authors":"Sydney DeWinter, Grace K Nichol, Christopher Fernandez-Prada, Amy L Greer, J Scott Weese, Katie M Clow","doi":"10.1186/s13071-025-06781-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In the Americas, sand flies of the Lutzomyia genus are the vectors of pathogens of human and animal health significance. Lutzomyia shannoni is suspected to transmit vesicular stomatitis virus, along with Leishmania mexicana and Leishmania infantum (causative agents of leishmaniases). Despite the suspected vector potential of Lu. shannoni, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how ongoing climate changes could facilitate their range expansion. The objectives of this study were to predict the current and future ecological suitability of regions across North America for Lu. shannoni and to identify variables driving ecological suitability.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Disease Vectors Database, the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) and published literature on Lu. shannoni surveillance and capture. Historical climate data from 1991-2020, along with projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 were obtained. An additional terrestrial ecoregions layer was applied. The ecological niche model was created using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithms to identify regions which currently are or may become ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Currently, regions in eastern, western and southern Mexico, along with the Midwest, southeastern and eastern regions of the USA are ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni. In the future, ecological suitability for Lu. shannoni is expected to increase slightly in the northeastern regions of the USA and in Atlantic Canada, and to decrease in the southeastern reaches of Mexico. Degree-days below 0 °C (spring and autumn), precipitation as snow (summer and winter), terrestrial ecoregions, number of frost-free days (summer), Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit (summer), degree-days above 5 °C (autumn) and Hogg's climatic moisture index (summer) were all identified as predictors of ecological suitability.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The findings from this study identified climate and environmental variables driving the ecological suitability of regions for Lu. shannoni and can be used to inform public health professionals of high-risk regions for exposure at present and into the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":19793,"journal":{"name":"Parasites & Vectors","volume":"18 1","pages":"154"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12032769/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing current and future areas of ecological suitability for Lutzomyia shannoni in North America.\",\"authors\":\"Sydney DeWinter, Grace K Nichol, Christopher Fernandez-Prada, Amy L Greer, J Scott Weese, Katie M Clow\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s13071-025-06781-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In the Americas, sand flies of the Lutzomyia genus are the vectors of pathogens of human and animal health significance. Lutzomyia shannoni is suspected to transmit vesicular stomatitis virus, along with Leishmania mexicana and Leishmania infantum (causative agents of leishmaniases). Despite the suspected vector potential of Lu. shannoni, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how ongoing climate changes could facilitate their range expansion. The objectives of this study were to predict the current and future ecological suitability of regions across North America for Lu. shannoni and to identify variables driving ecological suitability.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Disease Vectors Database, the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) and published literature on Lu. shannoni surveillance and capture. Historical climate data from 1991-2020, along with projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 were obtained. An additional terrestrial ecoregions layer was applied. The ecological niche model was created using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithms to identify regions which currently are or may become ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Currently, regions in eastern, western and southern Mexico, along with the Midwest, southeastern and eastern regions of the USA are ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni. In the future, ecological suitability for Lu. shannoni is expected to increase slightly in the northeastern regions of the USA and in Atlantic Canada, and to decrease in the southeastern reaches of Mexico. Degree-days below 0 °C (spring and autumn), precipitation as snow (summer and winter), terrestrial ecoregions, number of frost-free days (summer), Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit (summer), degree-days above 5 °C (autumn) and Hogg's climatic moisture index (summer) were all identified as predictors of ecological suitability.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The findings from this study identified climate and environmental variables driving the ecological suitability of regions for Lu. shannoni and can be used to inform public health professionals of high-risk regions for exposure at present and into the future.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19793,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Parasites & Vectors\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"154\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12032769/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Parasites & Vectors\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06781-4\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PARASITOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Parasites & Vectors","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06781-4","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PARASITOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing current and future areas of ecological suitability for Lutzomyia shannoni in North America.
Background: In the Americas, sand flies of the Lutzomyia genus are the vectors of pathogens of human and animal health significance. Lutzomyia shannoni is suspected to transmit vesicular stomatitis virus, along with Leishmania mexicana and Leishmania infantum (causative agents of leishmaniases). Despite the suspected vector potential of Lu. shannoni, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how ongoing climate changes could facilitate their range expansion. The objectives of this study were to predict the current and future ecological suitability of regions across North America for Lu. shannoni and to identify variables driving ecological suitability.
Methods: Occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Disease Vectors Database, the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) and published literature on Lu. shannoni surveillance and capture. Historical climate data from 1991-2020, along with projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 were obtained. An additional terrestrial ecoregions layer was applied. The ecological niche model was created using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithms to identify regions which currently are or may become ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni.
Results: Currently, regions in eastern, western and southern Mexico, along with the Midwest, southeastern and eastern regions of the USA are ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni. In the future, ecological suitability for Lu. shannoni is expected to increase slightly in the northeastern regions of the USA and in Atlantic Canada, and to decrease in the southeastern reaches of Mexico. Degree-days below 0 °C (spring and autumn), precipitation as snow (summer and winter), terrestrial ecoregions, number of frost-free days (summer), Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit (summer), degree-days above 5 °C (autumn) and Hogg's climatic moisture index (summer) were all identified as predictors of ecological suitability.
Conclusions: The findings from this study identified climate and environmental variables driving the ecological suitability of regions for Lu. shannoni and can be used to inform public health professionals of high-risk regions for exposure at present and into the future.
期刊介绍：
Parasites & Vectors is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal dealing with the biology of parasites, parasitic diseases, intermediate hosts, vectors and vector-borne pathogens. Manuscripts published in this journal will be available to all worldwide, with no barriers to access, immediately following acceptance. However, authors retain the copyright of their material and may use it, or distribute it, as they wish.
Manuscripts on all aspects of the basic and applied biology of parasites, intermediate hosts, vectors and vector-borne pathogens will be considered. In addition to the traditional and well-established areas of science in these fields, we also aim to provide a vehicle for publication of the rapidly developing resources and technology in parasite, intermediate host and vector genomics and their impacts on biological research. We are able to publish large datasets and extensive results, frequently associated with genomic and post-genomic technologies, which are not readily accommodated in traditional journals. Manuscripts addressing broader issues, for example economics, social sciences and global climate change in relation to parasites, vectors and disease control, are also welcomed.
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