K Lin, C Zhang, Z Xu, X Li, R Huang, Y Liu, H Yu, L Gu
{"title":"[1992 - 2030年中国血吸虫病疾病负担分析与预测]。","authors":"K Lin, C Zhang, Z Xu, X Li, R Huang, Y Liu, H Yu, L Gu","doi":"10.16250/j.32.1915.2024170","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the trends in the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and to project the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 2022 to 2030, so as to provide insights into the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The prevalence, age-standardized prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, as well as the years lost due to disability (YLDs) rate and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections in China, the world and different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources, and the trends in the disease burden due to schistosomiasis were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (<i>CI</i>). In addition, the age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis were examined in China using an age-period-cohort (APC) model, and the disease burden of schistosomiasis was predicted in China from 2022 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and the age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections were 761.32/10<sup>5</sup>, 5.55/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.38/10<sup>5</sup> in China in 2021. These rates were all lower than the global levels (1 914.30/10<sup>5</sup>, 21.90/10<sup>5</sup> and 3.36/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), as well as those in the medium SDI regions (1 413.61/10<sup>5</sup>, 12.10/10<sup>5</sup> and 1.93/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), low-medium SDI regions (2 461.03/10<sup>5</sup>, 26.81/10<sup>5</sup> and 4.48/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), and low SDI regions (5 832.77/10<sup>5</sup>, 94.48/10<sup>5</sup> and 10.65/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), but higher than those in the high SDI regions (59.47/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.49/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.05/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) and high-medium SDI regions (123.11/10<sup>5</sup>, 1.20/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.12/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively). The prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis were higher among men (820.79/10<sup>5</sup> and 5.86/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) than among women (697.96/10<sup>5</sup> and 5.23/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) in China in 2021, while the YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections was higher among women (0.66/10<sup>5</sup>) than among men (0.12/10<sup>5</sup>). The prevalence of schistosomiasis peaked at ages of 30 to 34 years among both men and women, while the DALYs rate of schistosomiasis peaked among men at ages of 15 to 19 years and among women at ages of 20 to 24 years. The age-standardized prevalence of schistosomiasis showed a moderate decline in China from 1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions [EAPC = -1.51%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-1.65%, -1.38%)], while the age-standardized DALYs rate [EAPC = -3.61%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.90%, -3.33%)] and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections [EAPC = -4.16%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.38%, -3.94%)] appeared the fastest decline in China from1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions. APC modeling showed age, period, and cohort effects on the trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and the prevalence of schistosomiasis appeared a rise followed by decline with age, and reduced with period and cohort. BAPC modeling revealed that the age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections all appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 2022 to 2030, which reduced to 722.72/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (538.74/10<sup>5</sup>, 906.68/10<sup>5</sup>)], 5.19/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (3.54/10<sup>5</sup>, 6.84/10<sup>5</sup>)] and 0.30/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (0.21/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.39/10<sup>5</sup>)] in 2030, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The disease burden of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 1992 to 2021, and is projected to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2030. There are age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China. Precision schistosomiasis control is required with adaptations to current prevalence and elimination needs.</p>","PeriodicalId":38874,"journal":{"name":"中国血吸虫病防治杂志","volume":"37 1","pages":"24-34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Analysis and forecast of the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2030].\",\"authors\":\"K Lin, C Zhang, Z Xu, X Li, R Huang, Y Liu, H Yu, L Gu\",\"doi\":\"10.16250/j.32.1915.2024170\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the trends in the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and to project the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 2022 to 2030, so as to provide insights into the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The prevalence, age-standardized prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, as well as the years lost due to disability (YLDs) rate and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections in China, the world and different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources, and the trends in the disease burden due to schistosomiasis were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (<i>CI</i>). In addition, the age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis were examined in China using an age-period-cohort (APC) model, and the disease burden of schistosomiasis was predicted in China from 2022 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and the age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections were 761.32/10<sup>5</sup>, 5.55/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.38/10<sup>5</sup> in China in 2021. These rates were all lower than the global levels (1 914.30/10<sup>5</sup>, 21.90/10<sup>5</sup> and 3.36/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), as well as those in the medium SDI regions (1 413.61/10<sup>5</sup>, 12.10/10<sup>5</sup> and 1.93/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), low-medium SDI regions (2 461.03/10<sup>5</sup>, 26.81/10<sup>5</sup> and 4.48/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), and low SDI regions (5 832.77/10<sup>5</sup>, 94.48/10<sup>5</sup> and 10.65/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively), but higher than those in the high SDI regions (59.47/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.49/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.05/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) and high-medium SDI regions (123.11/10<sup>5</sup>, 1.20/10<sup>5</sup> and 0.12/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively). The prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis were higher among men (820.79/10<sup>5</sup> and 5.86/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) than among women (697.96/10<sup>5</sup> and 5.23/10<sup>5</sup>, respectively) in China in 2021, while the YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections was higher among women (0.66/10<sup>5</sup>) than among men (0.12/10<sup>5</sup>). The prevalence of schistosomiasis peaked at ages of 30 to 34 years among both men and women, while the DALYs rate of schistosomiasis peaked among men at ages of 15 to 19 years and among women at ages of 20 to 24 years. The age-standardized prevalence of schistosomiasis showed a moderate decline in China from 1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions [EAPC = -1.51%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-1.65%, -1.38%)], while the age-standardized DALYs rate [EAPC = -3.61%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.90%, -3.33%)] and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections [EAPC = -4.16%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.38%, -3.94%)] appeared the fastest decline in China from1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions. APC modeling showed age, period, and cohort effects on the trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and the prevalence of schistosomiasis appeared a rise followed by decline with age, and reduced with period and cohort. BAPC modeling revealed that the age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to <i>Schistosoma</i> infections all appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 2022 to 2030, which reduced to 722.72/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (538.74/10<sup>5</sup>, 906.68/10<sup>5</sup>)], 5.19/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (3.54/10<sup>5</sup>, 6.84/10<sup>5</sup>)] and 0.30/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>CI</i>: (0.21/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.39/10<sup>5</sup>)] in 2030, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The disease burden of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 1992 to 2021, and is projected to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2030. There are age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China. Precision schistosomiasis control is required with adaptations to current prevalence and elimination needs.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":38874,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"中国血吸虫病防治杂志\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"24-34\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"中国血吸虫病防治杂志\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.16250/j.32.1915.2024170\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国血吸虫病防治杂志","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.16250/j.32.1915.2024170","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
[Analysis and forecast of the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2030].
Objective: To analyze the trends in the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and to project the disease burden of schistosomiasis in China from 2022 to 2030, so as to provide insights into the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.
Methods: The prevalence, age-standardized prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, as well as the years lost due to disability (YLDs) rate and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to Schistosoma infections in China, the world and different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources, and the trends in the disease burden due to schistosomiasis were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). In addition, the age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis were examined in China using an age-period-cohort (APC) model, and the disease burden of schistosomiasis was predicted in China from 2022 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
Results: The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and the age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to Schistosoma infections were 761.32/105, 5.55/105 and 0.38/105 in China in 2021. These rates were all lower than the global levels (1 914.30/105, 21.90/105 and 3.36/105, respectively), as well as those in the medium SDI regions (1 413.61/105, 12.10/105 and 1.93/105, respectively), low-medium SDI regions (2 461.03/105, 26.81/105 and 4.48/105, respectively), and low SDI regions (5 832.77/105, 94.48/105 and 10.65/105, respectively), but higher than those in the high SDI regions (59.47/105, 0.49/105 and 0.05/105, respectively) and high-medium SDI regions (123.11/105, 1.20/105 and 0.12/105, respectively). The prevalence and DALYs rate of schistosomiasis were higher among men (820.79/105 and 5.86/105, respectively) than among women (697.96/105 and 5.23/105, respectively) in China in 2021, while the YLDs rate of anemia attributable to Schistosoma infections was higher among women (0.66/105) than among men (0.12/105). The prevalence of schistosomiasis peaked at ages of 30 to 34 years among both men and women, while the DALYs rate of schistosomiasis peaked among men at ages of 15 to 19 years and among women at ages of 20 to 24 years. The age-standardized prevalence of schistosomiasis showed a moderate decline in China from 1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions [EAPC = -1.51%, 95% CI: (-1.65%, -1.38%)], while the age-standardized DALYs rate [EAPC = -3.61%, 95% CI: (-3.90%, -3.33%)] and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to Schistosoma infections [EAPC = -4.16%, 95% CI: (-4.38%, -3.94%)] appeared the fastest decline in China from1992 to 2021 relative to different SDI regions. APC modeling showed age, period, and cohort effects on the trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China from 1992 to 2021, and the prevalence of schistosomiasis appeared a rise followed by decline with age, and reduced with period and cohort. BAPC modeling revealed that the age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized DALYs rate of schistosomiasis, and age-standardized YLDs rate of anemia attributable to Schistosoma infections all appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 2022 to 2030, which reduced to 722.72/105 [95% CI: (538.74/105, 906.68/105)], 5.19/105 [95% CI: (3.54/105, 6.84/105)] and 0.30/105 [95% CI: (0.21/105, 0.39/105)] in 2030, respectively.
Conclusions: The disease burden of schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in China from 1992 to 2021, and is projected to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2030. There are age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of schistosomiasis in China. Precision schistosomiasis control is required with adaptations to current prevalence and elimination needs.
期刊介绍：
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control (ISSN: 1005-6661, CN: 32-1374/R), founded in 1989, is a technical and scientific journal under the supervision of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission and organised by Jiangsu Institute of Schistosomiasis Control. It is a scientific and technical journal under the supervision of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission and sponsored by Jiangsu Institute of Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control. The journal carries out the policy of prevention-oriented, control-oriented, nationwide and grassroots, adheres to the tenet of scientific research service for the prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis and other parasitic diseases, and mainly publishes academic papers reflecting the latest achievements and dynamics of prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis and other parasitic diseases, scientific research and management, etc. The main columns are Guest Contributions, Experts‘ Commentary, Experts’ Perspectives, Experts' Forums, Theses, Prevention and Treatment Research, Experimental Research, The main columns include Guest Contributions, Expert Commentaries, Expert Perspectives, Expert Forums, Treatises, Prevention and Control Studies, Experimental Studies, Clinical Studies, Prevention and Control Experiences, Prevention and Control Management, Reviews, Case Reports, and Information, etc. The journal is a useful reference material for the professional and technical personnel of schistosomiasis and parasitic disease prevention and control research, management workers, and teachers and students of medical schools.
The journal is now included in important domestic databases, such as Chinese Core List (8th edition), China Science Citation Database (Core Edition), China Science and Technology Core Journals (Statistical Source Journals), and is also included in MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO, Chemical Abstract, Embase, Zoological Record, JSTChina, Ulrichsweb, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus, CABI and other international authoritative databases.
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