Risk factors and clinical outcomes in patients with HCV eradication by direct-acting antivirals: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: In hepatitis C patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) achieved after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes can be reduced but not completely eliminated. This meta-analysis aims at estimating the incidence of clinical outcomes in hepatitis C patients after achieving SVR with DAAs.

Methods: Literature search was carried out in PubMed, Cochrane Library database, Web of Science, and Embase. The primary endpoint was the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence, HCC recurrence, decompensated cirrhosis, and liver-related mortality, following DAA-induced elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, comorbidities, region, fibrosis stage, presence of decompensation, duration of follow-up, start point of follow-up, and HCC treatment modality. Furthermore, meta-regression was performed to explore sources of high heterogeneity.

Results: Finally, 132 articles were included in our study. The pooled HCC occurrence rate was 1.50/100 person-years (95% CI, 1.35-1.65), HCC recurrence rate was 17.00/100 person-years (95% CI, 13.83-20.42), decompensation rate was 0.30/100 person-years (95% CI, 0.16-0.48), and liver-related mortality was 0.32/100 person-years (95% CI, 0.14-0.56). Meta-regression showed that duration of follow-up and fibrosis grade were important contributors to HCC occurrence. Age, start point of follow-up, and duration of follow-up were important contributors to HCC recurrence rate.

Conclusion: Patients with DAA-induced HCV elimination remain at risk for adverse outcomes, particularly those with cirrhosis and HCC history. The exposure to adverse outcomes tended to decrease over time, and the frequency and intensity of follow-up might be reduced in the future, which will require new scoring models to identify these individuals.