转移性舌鳞状细胞癌患者的预后图：一项基于seer的研究。

IF 2.9 3区医学 Q1 DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE

Oral diseases Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI:10.1111/odi.15381

Yanling Chen, Zhoumiao Qi, Chaoyue Hu, Yanling Yu, Kai Liu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的：建立并验证转移性舌鳞状细胞癌（MTSCC）的预测图。方法：2010 - 2015年，利用SEER数据库收集MTSCC患者的临床资料。采用R软件建立预测MTSCC患者癌症特异性生存（CSS）概率的nomogram。通过一致性指数（C-index）、受者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）、校准曲线和决策曲线分析（DCA）对nomogram进行验证。结果：筛选后，284例患者被随机分配，其中199人被置于训练队列，85人被置于验证队列，比例为7:3。多因素Cox回归分析发现化疗、淋巴结清扫、脑、骨、肺转移、N分期是CSS的独立危险因素。训练组c指数为0.664，验证组c指数为0.683。1年、3年和5年CSS率的AUC均大于0.71，标定图进一步证明了nomogram具有较强的效度。DCA显示该图具有良好的临床意义。结论：所建立的nomogram模型能够可靠、直观地预测MTSCC患者的CSS概率。

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Prognostic Nomogram for Patients With Metastatic Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A SEER-Based Study.

Objective: To construct and validate a predictive nomogram for patients with metastatic tongue squamous cell carcinoma (MTSCC).

Methods: From 2010 to 2015, the SEER database was used to gather the clinical information of MTSCC patients. R software was used to establish a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) probability of MTSCC patients. The nomogram was validated by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Following screening, 284 patients were randomized, with 199 people placed in the training cohort and 85 people placed in the validation cohort, at a ratio of 7:3. By using multivariate Cox regression analysis, it was discovered that chemotherapy, lymph node dissection, brain, bone, lung metastases, and N stage were independent risk factors for CSS. The C-index was 0.664 in the training group and 0.683 in the validation group. The AUC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates was more than 0.71, and the calibration plot further demonstrated the nomogram's strong validity. DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical significance.

Conclusion: The CSS probability of patients with MTSCC can be reliably and intuitively predicted by the established nomogram model.

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来源期刊

Oral diseases 医学-牙科与口腔外科

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

5.30%

发文量

325

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Oral Diseases is a multidisciplinary and international journal with a focus on head and neck disorders, edited by leaders in the field, Professor Giovanni Lodi (Editor-in-Chief, Milan, Italy), Professor Stefano Petti (Deputy Editor, Rome, Italy) and Associate Professor Gulshan Sunavala-Dossabhoy (Deputy Editor, Shreveport, LA, USA). The journal is pre-eminent in oral medicine. Oral Diseases specifically strives to link often-isolated areas of dentistry and medicine through broad-based scholarship that includes well-designed and controlled clinical research, analytical epidemiology, and the translation of basic science in pre-clinical studies. The journal typically publishes articles relevant to many related medical specialties including especially dermatology, gastroenterology, hematology, immunology, infectious diseases, neuropsychiatry, oncology and otolaryngology. The essential requirement is that all submitted research is hypothesis-driven, with significant positive and negative results both welcomed. Equal publication emphasis is placed on etiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, prevention and treatment.