Emma Birnie, Magda Vergouwe, Brent Appelman, Jason J Biemond, Jarom Heijmans, Brooke E Nichols, W Joost Wiersinga, Stephanie Popping
{"title":"尼马特韦/利托那韦在高危人群中治疗COVID-19的成本-效果分析：一项模型研究","authors":"Emma Birnie, Magda Vergouwe, Brent Appelman, Jason J Biemond, Jarom Heijmans, Brooke E Nichols, W Joost Wiersinga, Stephanie Popping","doi":"10.1093/ofid/ofaf187","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>To prevent severe disease, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (nirmatrelvir/r) is administered to individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who are at high risk, and it is currently priced at approximately $1375 in the Netherlands. We aim to evaluate the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/r among patients with high risk of severe disease.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a decision-analytic model parameterized with clinical and health care utilization data from individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between September 2021 and November 2023. We assumed baseline event rates of 1% for hospitalization and 0.05% for intensive care unit admission. Nirmatrelvir/r-related factors were varied. Costs were collected from a third-party payer's perspective, and the cost-effectiveness threshold was <$88 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This study included 949 individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The sample had a median age of 65 years (IQR, 53-75), and 416 (44%) participants were female. Comorbidities included obesity (25%), hematologic malignancy (21%), solid organ/stem cell transplantation (17%), and immunosuppressive medication use (47%). With an assumed low effectiveness, nirmatrelvir/r could reduce hospitalizations and deaths (relative risk reduction, 21% and 44%, respectively). With high effectiveness, relative risk reductions of 89% and 90% were calculated for hospitalizations and deaths. Higher baseline rates for intensive care unit and hospital admission positively influenced cost-effectiveness thresholds. Nirmatrelvir/r is cost-effectively priced at <$512 with low effectiveness and <$1071 with high effectiveness.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>With current low baseline event rates for hospitalization, nirmatrelvir/r has the potential, not only to reduce hospitalizations and deaths in individuals with COVID-19 who are at high risk, but to do so cost-effectively with a drug price reduction of 22% to 63%. These findings are relevant for policy makers and physicians and emphasize the importance of reevaluating current drug pricing.</p><p><strong>Clinical trials registration: </strong>NCT05195060 (ClinicalTrials.gov).</p>","PeriodicalId":19517,"journal":{"name":"Open Forum Infectious Diseases","volume":"12 4","pages":"ofaf187"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12006789/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study.\",\"authors\":\"Emma Birnie, Magda Vergouwe, Brent Appelman, Jason J Biemond, Jarom Heijmans, Brooke E Nichols, W Joost Wiersinga, Stephanie Popping\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ofid/ofaf187\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>To prevent severe disease, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (nirmatrelvir/r) is administered to individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who are at high risk, and it is currently priced at approximately $1375 in the Netherlands. We aim to evaluate the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/r among patients with high risk of severe disease.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a decision-analytic model parameterized with clinical and health care utilization data from individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between September 2021 and November 2023. We assumed baseline event rates of 1% for hospitalization and 0.05% for intensive care unit admission. Nirmatrelvir/r-related factors were varied. Costs were collected from a third-party payer's perspective, and the cost-effectiveness threshold was <$88 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This study included 949 individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The sample had a median age of 65 years (IQR, 53-75), and 416 (44%) participants were female. Comorbidities included obesity (25%), hematologic malignancy (21%), solid organ/stem cell transplantation (17%), and immunosuppressive medication use (47%). With an assumed low effectiveness, nirmatrelvir/r could reduce hospitalizations and deaths (relative risk reduction, 21% and 44%, respectively). With high effectiveness, relative risk reductions of 89% and 90% were calculated for hospitalizations and deaths. Higher baseline rates for intensive care unit and hospital admission positively influenced cost-effectiveness thresholds. Nirmatrelvir/r is cost-effectively priced at <$512 with low effectiveness and <$1071 with high effectiveness.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>With current low baseline event rates for hospitalization, nirmatrelvir/r has the potential, not only to reduce hospitalizations and deaths in individuals with COVID-19 who are at high risk, but to do so cost-effectively with a drug price reduction of 22% to 63%. These findings are relevant for policy makers and physicians and emphasize the importance of reevaluating current drug pricing.</p><p><strong>Clinical trials registration: </strong>NCT05195060 (ClinicalTrials.gov).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19517,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Open Forum Infectious Diseases\",\"volume\":\"12 4\",\"pages\":\"ofaf187\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12006789/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Open Forum Infectious Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofaf187\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/4/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Open Forum Infectious Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofaf187","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/4/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study.
Background: To prevent severe disease, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (nirmatrelvir/r) is administered to individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who are at high risk, and it is currently priced at approximately $1375 in the Netherlands. We aim to evaluate the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/r among patients with high risk of severe disease.
Methods: We used a decision-analytic model parameterized with clinical and health care utilization data from individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between September 2021 and November 2023. We assumed baseline event rates of 1% for hospitalization and 0.05% for intensive care unit admission. Nirmatrelvir/r-related factors were varied. Costs were collected from a third-party payer's perspective, and the cost-effectiveness threshold was <$88 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties.
Results: This study included 949 individuals at high risk who were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The sample had a median age of 65 years (IQR, 53-75), and 416 (44%) participants were female. Comorbidities included obesity (25%), hematologic malignancy (21%), solid organ/stem cell transplantation (17%), and immunosuppressive medication use (47%). With an assumed low effectiveness, nirmatrelvir/r could reduce hospitalizations and deaths (relative risk reduction, 21% and 44%, respectively). With high effectiveness, relative risk reductions of 89% and 90% were calculated for hospitalizations and deaths. Higher baseline rates for intensive care unit and hospital admission positively influenced cost-effectiveness thresholds. Nirmatrelvir/r is cost-effectively priced at <$512 with low effectiveness and <$1071 with high effectiveness.
Conclusions: With current low baseline event rates for hospitalization, nirmatrelvir/r has the potential, not only to reduce hospitalizations and deaths in individuals with COVID-19 who are at high risk, but to do so cost-effectively with a drug price reduction of 22% to 63%. These findings are relevant for policy makers and physicians and emphasize the importance of reevaluating current drug pricing.
期刊介绍：
Open Forum Infectious Diseases provides a global forum for the publication of clinical, translational, and basic research findings in a fully open access, online journal environment. The journal reflects the broad diversity of the field of infectious diseases, and focuses on the intersection of biomedical science and clinical practice, with a particular emphasis on knowledge that holds the potential to improve patient care in populations around the world. Fully peer-reviewed, OFID supports the international community of infectious diseases experts by providing a venue for articles that further the understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases.
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