基于FLUS和InVEST模型的河南省氮非点源污染时空变化特征模拟与预测[j]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Jin-Cai Zhang, Guang-Xing Ji, Qing-Song Li, Meng Li, Hong-Kai Gao, Wei-Qiang Chen, Yu-Long Guo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为阐明气候变化影响下河南省氮非点源污染特征,本研究首先利用InVEST模型对2000 - 2020年河南省氮非点源污染负荷的时空分布进行了模拟,随后将FLUS模型与InVEST模型进行耦合,分析了气候变化对河南省氮非点源污染负荷的影响。2030 - 2050年SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候情景下河南省空间分布特征。研究结果表明:①2000 ~ 2020年,河南省氮素总产量和负荷量均呈现先上升后下降的趋势,总体上保持下降趋势;②在空间分布上,2000—2020年氮素输出负荷呈现“平原高、丘陵低”的格局,表明氮素非点源污染与地形有较强的相关性。③在ssp2—4.5情景下,2030—2050年氮素总产出和负荷量呈逐年增加趋势,总体变化格局复杂;在ssp5—8.5情景下,氮素总产出和负荷量呈先减少后增加的趋势,总体变化格局一致。在此基础上,结合河南省的实际情况,希望本研究能为今后河南省面源污染的防治提供理论依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Simulation and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Nitrogen Non-point Source Pollution in Henan Province Based on FLUS and InVEST Models].

To elucidate the characteristics of nitrogen non-point source pollution in Henan Province under the influence of climate change, this study initially utilized the InVEST model to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of the N non-point source pollution load in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020, subsequently coupling the FLUS model with the InVEST model, nitrogen point source pollution load, and its spatial distribution in Henan Province from 2030 to 2050 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The findings of the study indicated that: ① Between 2000 and 2020, the total nitrogen output and load in Henan Province initially increased before decreasing, maintaining an overall downward trend. ② In terms of spatial distribution, the nitrogen output load from 2000 to 2020 displayed a pattern of "high in the plains, low in hilly areas," indicating a strong correlation between nitrogen non-point source pollution and topography. ③ Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the total nitrogen output and load were projected to increase annually from 2030 to 2050, with a complex overall change pattern; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the total nitrogen output and load were anticipated to decrease initially before increasing, with a consistent overall change pattern. Based on these results and in conjunction with the practical situation of Henan Province, it is hoped that this research can provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of future non-point source pollution in the province.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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