The burden and trend prediction of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

Aim: The purpose of this study was to quantify the global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, 2021.

Methods: Data on the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) associated with lead exposure were compiled globally from 1990 to 2021. These data were further stratified by dimensions including gender, age, GBD regions, and countries. Utilizing the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed long-term trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure and derived estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). For future projections, we used an ARIMA model to predict potential trends in the burden of IHD disease associated with lead exposure over the next decade.

Results: The study's findings reveal that in 2021, there were 590,370 deaths attributed to IHD (95% UI (Uncertainty interval (UI) is derived from the Bayesian school of statistical analysis used in the GBD studies. Unlike the frequency school of thought, which constructs confidence intervals (CI), the Bayesian school of thought views probability as a measure of confidence in an event, and in this approach the actual mean is viewed as a random variable dependent on the data and prior knowledge, with UI indicating that there is a specific probability (e.g., 95%) that the actual mean will fall within the interval.): -83,778 to 1,233,628) and 11,854,661 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (95% UI: -1,668,553 to 24,791,275) globally due to lead exposure, reflecting an increasing and then stabilizing trend from 1990 to 2021. Comparative analysis across study regions indicated a higher disease burden for IHD in regions with lower Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) values, contrasting with the lower burden in regions with higher SDI values. Furthermore, IHD mortality and DALYs peak in the 70-80 age cohort, with males exhibiting higher rates compared to females. Decadal projections indicate a downward trend in IHD mortality and DALYs for regions with higher SDI, in contrast to an anticipated upward trend in regions with lower SDI.

Conclusion: The global burden of ischemic heart disease associated with lead exposure is increasing, particularly in regions with low SDI values and within the elderly population. Considering the profound threat posed by lead exposure to the global burden of IHD, there is an imperative to consistently reinforce and execute robust prevention strategies to mitigate environmental lead exposure.