{"title":"泌尿系统肿瘤Nomogram发展、验证与临床应用:如何建立最佳预测模型。","authors":"Takanobu Utsumi, Naoki Ishitsuka, Takahide Noro, Yuta Suzuki, Shota Iijima, Yuka Sugizaki, Takatoshi Somoto, Ryo Oka, Takumi Endo, Naoto Kamiya, Hiroyoshi Suzuki","doi":"10.1111/iju.70075","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Nomograms are increasingly recognized as indispensable clinical prediction tools, offering individualized risk estimates through interpretable and visually intuitive formats. Their integration into urologic oncology has significantly advanced precision medicine by enabling refined risk stratification for patients with urological malignancies. This review provides a concise yet comprehensive overview of the development, clinical application, and future prospects of nomograms in urologic oncology. We first outline the essential methodological framework for constructing valid prediction models, including outcome definition, predictor selection, model building, and statistical evaluation using discrimination and calibration metrics. Internal validation techniques such as cross-validation and bootstrapping are highlighted as safeguards against overfitting, while external validation is emphasized to ensure generalizability across diverse clinical contexts. Twelve representative nomograms are examined, classified by display type and implementation format, to illustrate their clinical relevance and limitations. While regression-based models remain widely used, emerging approaches incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning offer enhanced predictive accuracy but pose challenges in interpretability and integration into electronic health records. Interactive decision-support tools are also gaining prominence, promoting real-time, patient-centered care. Despite existing limitations, such as static outputs, dependence on retrospective data, and inconsistent methodological standards, nomograms continue to facilitate precise and evidence-based decision-making. Looking ahead, future models must prioritize transparency, dynamic updating, multimodal data integration, and adherence to established reporting guidelines. Through rigorous development and thoughtful implementation, nomograms will remain pivotal instruments in delivering personalized, high-quality care in urologic oncology.</p>","PeriodicalId":14323,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Urology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Development, Validation, and Clinical Utility of a Nomogram for Urological Tumors: How to Build the Best Predictive Model.\",\"authors\":\"Takanobu Utsumi, Naoki Ishitsuka, Takahide Noro, Yuta Suzuki, Shota Iijima, Yuka Sugizaki, Takatoshi Somoto, Ryo Oka, Takumi Endo, Naoto Kamiya, Hiroyoshi Suzuki\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/iju.70075\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Nomograms are increasingly recognized as indispensable clinical prediction tools, offering individualized risk estimates through interpretable and visually intuitive formats. Their integration into urologic oncology has significantly advanced precision medicine by enabling refined risk stratification for patients with urological malignancies. This review provides a concise yet comprehensive overview of the development, clinical application, and future prospects of nomograms in urologic oncology. We first outline the essential methodological framework for constructing valid prediction models, including outcome definition, predictor selection, model building, and statistical evaluation using discrimination and calibration metrics. Internal validation techniques such as cross-validation and bootstrapping are highlighted as safeguards against overfitting, while external validation is emphasized to ensure generalizability across diverse clinical contexts. Twelve representative nomograms are examined, classified by display type and implementation format, to illustrate their clinical relevance and limitations. While regression-based models remain widely used, emerging approaches incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning offer enhanced predictive accuracy but pose challenges in interpretability and integration into electronic health records. Interactive decision-support tools are also gaining prominence, promoting real-time, patient-centered care. Despite existing limitations, such as static outputs, dependence on retrospective data, and inconsistent methodological standards, nomograms continue to facilitate precise and evidence-based decision-making. Looking ahead, future models must prioritize transparency, dynamic updating, multimodal data integration, and adherence to established reporting guidelines. Through rigorous development and thoughtful implementation, nomograms will remain pivotal instruments in delivering personalized, high-quality care in urologic oncology.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14323,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Urology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Urology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/iju.70075\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Urology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/iju.70075","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Development, Validation, and Clinical Utility of a Nomogram for Urological Tumors: How to Build the Best Predictive Model.
Nomograms are increasingly recognized as indispensable clinical prediction tools, offering individualized risk estimates through interpretable and visually intuitive formats. Their integration into urologic oncology has significantly advanced precision medicine by enabling refined risk stratification for patients with urological malignancies. This review provides a concise yet comprehensive overview of the development, clinical application, and future prospects of nomograms in urologic oncology. We first outline the essential methodological framework for constructing valid prediction models, including outcome definition, predictor selection, model building, and statistical evaluation using discrimination and calibration metrics. Internal validation techniques such as cross-validation and bootstrapping are highlighted as safeguards against overfitting, while external validation is emphasized to ensure generalizability across diverse clinical contexts. Twelve representative nomograms are examined, classified by display type and implementation format, to illustrate their clinical relevance and limitations. While regression-based models remain widely used, emerging approaches incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning offer enhanced predictive accuracy but pose challenges in interpretability and integration into electronic health records. Interactive decision-support tools are also gaining prominence, promoting real-time, patient-centered care. Despite existing limitations, such as static outputs, dependence on retrospective data, and inconsistent methodological standards, nomograms continue to facilitate precise and evidence-based decision-making. Looking ahead, future models must prioritize transparency, dynamic updating, multimodal data integration, and adherence to established reporting guidelines. Through rigorous development and thoughtful implementation, nomograms will remain pivotal instruments in delivering personalized, high-quality care in urologic oncology.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Urology is the official English language journal of the Japanese Urological Association, publishing articles of scientific excellence in urology. Submissions of papers from all countries are considered for publication. All manuscripts are subject to peer review and are judged on the basis of their contribution of original data and ideas or interpretation.