泌尿系统肿瘤Nomogram发展、验证与临床应用:如何建立最佳预测模型。

IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q3 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY
Takanobu Utsumi, Naoki Ishitsuka, Takahide Noro, Yuta Suzuki, Shota Iijima, Yuka Sugizaki, Takatoshi Somoto, Ryo Oka, Takumi Endo, Naoto Kamiya, Hiroyoshi Suzuki
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引用次数: 0

摘要

nomogram正日益被认为是不可或缺的临床预测工具,通过可解释和视觉直观的格式提供个性化的风险估计。通过对泌尿系统恶性肿瘤患者进行精细的风险分层,它们与泌尿系统肿瘤学的结合显著推进了精准医学的发展。这篇综述提供了一个简明而全面的概述发展,临床应用,并在泌尿肿瘤学的未来前景图。我们首先概述了构建有效预测模型的基本方法框架,包括结果定义、预测者选择、模型构建以及使用判别和校准指标进行统计评估。强调内部验证技术,如交叉验证和自举,以防止过度拟合,而强调外部验证,以确保在不同临床背景下的通用性。12个代表性的图被检查,按显示类型和实现格式分类,以说明他们的临床相关性和局限性。虽然基于回归的模型仍被广泛使用,但结合人工智能和机器学习的新兴方法提供了更高的预测准确性,但在可解释性和集成到电子健康记录方面提出了挑战。交互式决策支持工具也日益突出,促进了实时、以患者为中心的护理。尽管存在一些限制,如静态输出、对回顾性数据的依赖以及不一致的方法标准,但态图继续促进精确和基于证据的决策。展望未来,未来的模型必须优先考虑透明度、动态更新、多模式数据集成以及遵守已建立的报告指南。通过严格的开发和周到的实施,nomograph将仍然是提供个性化、高质量的泌尿肿瘤护理的关键工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Development, Validation, and Clinical Utility of a Nomogram for Urological Tumors: How to Build the Best Predictive Model.

Nomograms are increasingly recognized as indispensable clinical prediction tools, offering individualized risk estimates through interpretable and visually intuitive formats. Their integration into urologic oncology has significantly advanced precision medicine by enabling refined risk stratification for patients with urological malignancies. This review provides a concise yet comprehensive overview of the development, clinical application, and future prospects of nomograms in urologic oncology. We first outline the essential methodological framework for constructing valid prediction models, including outcome definition, predictor selection, model building, and statistical evaluation using discrimination and calibration metrics. Internal validation techniques such as cross-validation and bootstrapping are highlighted as safeguards against overfitting, while external validation is emphasized to ensure generalizability across diverse clinical contexts. Twelve representative nomograms are examined, classified by display type and implementation format, to illustrate their clinical relevance and limitations. While regression-based models remain widely used, emerging approaches incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning offer enhanced predictive accuracy but pose challenges in interpretability and integration into electronic health records. Interactive decision-support tools are also gaining prominence, promoting real-time, patient-centered care. Despite existing limitations, such as static outputs, dependence on retrospective data, and inconsistent methodological standards, nomograms continue to facilitate precise and evidence-based decision-making. Looking ahead, future models must prioritize transparency, dynamic updating, multimodal data integration, and adherence to established reporting guidelines. Through rigorous development and thoughtful implementation, nomograms will remain pivotal instruments in delivering personalized, high-quality care in urologic oncology.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Urology
International Journal of Urology 医学-泌尿学与肾脏学
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
11.50%
发文量
340
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of Urology is the official English language journal of the Japanese Urological Association, publishing articles of scientific excellence in urology. Submissions of papers from all countries are considered for publication. All manuscripts are subject to peer review and are judged on the basis of their contribution of original data and ideas or interpretation.
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