英国普通感冒大流行后的免疫债务：一项中断的时间序列研究。

IF 4.8 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107918

Char Leung , Li Su

{"title":"英国普通感冒大流行后的免疫债务：一项中断的时间序列研究。","authors":"Char Leung , Li Su","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107918","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107918"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study\",\"authors\":\"Char Leung , Li Su\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107918\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14006,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Infectious Diseases\",\"volume\":\"156 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107918\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Infectious Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用UKHSA的每周阳性率数据调查了英国五种常见感冒病毒（腺病毒、副流感病毒、人偏肺病毒、鼻病毒和呼吸道合胞病毒）的免疫负债。一项中断时间序列分析评估了npi后的影响，并进行了敏感性分析，以解释多年来病毒动力学的潜在结构变化。结果表明对腺病毒、副流感病毒和呼吸道合胞病毒有明显的免疫欠账。这些发现强调了在npi取消后需要做好公共卫生准备，特别是对弱势群体，并强调了在预测具有高血清型多样性的病毒的免疫负债方面的挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study

This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

International Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

1020

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID) Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases Publication Frequency: Monthly Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access Scope: Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research. Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports. Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases. Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.