Predictive nomogram for early detection of invasive fungal disease deterioration --- a 10-year retrospective cohort study.

Background: Invasive fungal disease (IFD) is characterized by its capacity to rapidly escalate to life-threatening conditions, even when patients are hospitalized. However, the precise prognostic significance of baseline clinical characteristics related to the progression outcome of IFD remains elusive.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study spanning a duration of 10 years was conducted at two prominent tertiary teaching hospitals in Southern China. Patients with proven IFD were queried and divided into serious and non-serious groups based on the disease deterioration. To establish robust predictive models, patients from the first hospital were randomly assigned to either a training set or an internal validation set, while patients from the second hospital constituted an external test set. To analyze the potential predictors of IFD deterioration and identify independent predictors, the study employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method in conjunction with binary logistic regressions. Based on the outcomes of this analysis, a predictive nomogram was constructed. The performance of the developed model was thoroughly evaluated using the training set, internal validation set, and external test set.

Results: A total of 480 cases from the first hospital and 256 cases from the second hospital were included in the study. Among the 480 patients, 81 cases (16.9%) experienced deterioration, and out of those, 45 (55.6%) cases resulted in mortality. Seven independent predictors were identified and utilized to construct a predictive nomogram. The nomogram exhibited excellent predictive performance in all three sets: the training set, internal validation set, and external test set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the training set was 0.88, for the internal validation set was 0.91, and for the external test set was 0.90. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and Brier score indicated a high goodness of fit for the model. Furthermore, the calibration curve demonstrated a strong agreement between the predicted outcomes from the nomogram and the actual observations. Additionally, the decision curve analysis exhibited that the nomogram provided significant clinical net benefits in predicting IFD deterioration.

Conclusions: The study successfully identified seven independent predictors and developed a predictive nomogram for early assessment of the likelihood of IFD deterioration.