英国家庭调查中没有“隐藏人口”,在多大程度上低估了吸烟率?

IF 5.2 1区 医学 Q1 PSYCHIATRY
Addiction Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI:10.1111/add.70071
Emma Beard, Lion Shahab, Jamie Brown, Sharon Cox
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景和目的:人口调查使用的抽样框架可能会导致对吸烟率的低估,因为没有对那些不居住在家庭中的人(也称为“隐藏人口”)进行抽样。这包括生活在护理和寄宿家庭中的人、无家可归者以及具有“缺席”或“临时”家庭身份的人(例如,提供住宿和早餐、没有支助的临时住所以及在监狱中的人)。这项研究估计了纳入这些人群对英国吸烟率的影响。方法:使用来自英国政府报告和已发表研究的数据来估计隐藏人群的规模和这些人群中的吸烟率。估计了将“隐藏人群”包括在内对英国整体吸烟率的影响,以及一个校正因子来解释他们被排除在外的原因。结果:18岁以上的隐形人群估计约为190万人,吸烟率在58%至66%之间。考虑到吸烟率调查中隐藏的人群,可能会使估计值增加1.12至1.14的修正系数。这意味着到2022年,吸烟率将从报告的12.9%上升到调整后的14.5-14.8%。结论:吸烟流行率调查中“隐藏人群”的缺失导致对英国吸烟率的低估。根据估计的修正系数,并假设吸烟继续以目前的速度下降,实现英国政府的目标
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How much does the absence of the 'hidden population' from United Kingdom household surveys underestimate smoking prevalence?

Background and aim: Sampling frames used by population surveys may result in an underestimation of smoking prevalence as those not residing in households, also known as the 'hidden population', are not sampled. This includes people living in care and residential homes, populations experiencing homelessness, as well as those who have an "absent or "temporary" household status (e.g. bed and breakfasts, unsupported temporary accommodation, and those in prison). This study estimated the impact of including these populations on smoking prevalence in the UK.

Methods: Data from UK government reports and published studies were used to derive estimates of the size of the hidden populations and rates of smoking within these populations. The impact of including the 'hidden population' on overall smoking prevalence in the UK was estimated, along with a correction factor to account for their exclusion.

Results: The hidden population over the age of 18 was estimated to be around 1.9 million with a smoking prevalence of between 58% and 66%. Accounting for this hidden population in smoking prevalence surveys may inflate estimates by a correction factor of 1.12 to 1.14. This means smoking prevalence in 2022 would increase from a reported 12.9% to an adjusted range of 14.5-14.8%.

Conclusion: The absence of the 'hidden population' from smoking prevalence surveys leads to underestimation of smoking rates in the UK. Based on the estimated correction factor, and assuming smoking continues to decline at current rates, achieving the UK government's target of <5% by 2030 would be substantially delayed.

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来源期刊
Addiction
Addiction 医学-精神病学
CiteScore
10.80
自引率
6.70%
发文量
319
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Addiction publishes peer-reviewed research reports on pharmacological and behavioural addictions, bringing together research conducted within many different disciplines. Its goal is to serve international and interdisciplinary scientific and clinical communication, to strengthen links between science and policy, and to stimulate and enhance the quality of debate. We seek submissions that are not only technically competent but are also original and contain information or ideas of fresh interest to our international readership. We seek to serve low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries as well as more economically developed countries. Addiction’s scope spans human experimental, epidemiological, social science, historical, clinical and policy research relating to addiction, primarily but not exclusively in the areas of psychoactive substance use and/or gambling. In addition to original research, the journal features editorials, commentaries, reviews, letters, and book reviews.
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