使用日本国家临床数据库数据更新胰十二指肠切除术风险预测模型

IF 2.9 4区 医学 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Masamichi Mizuma, Hideki Endo, Hiroyuki Yamamoto, Mitsuhiro Shimura, Masahiro Iseki, Michiaki Unno, Taro Oshikiri, Yoshihiro Kakeji, Ken Shirabe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的利用十多年前国家临床数据库的数据,建立了胰十二指肠切除术患者死亡率、术后严重并发症和术后胰瘘的风险预测模型,胰十二指肠切除术的手术效果近年来有所改善。本研究的目的是利用国家临床数据库数据更新胰十二指肠切除术的风险预测模型。方法回顾性分析2019 - 2021年国家临床数据库中登记的35365例胰十二指肠切除术患者的资料。根据注册年份将患者分为两组:发展组(2019-2020年);N = 23654)和验证队列(2021;n = 11 711)。采用Logistic回归分析建立手术死亡率、严重术后并发症和术后C级胰瘘的风险模型。结果总体而言,手术死亡率、术后严重并发症和术后C级胰瘘发生率分别为1.8%、2.2%和1.3%。Logistic回归分析显示手术死亡率、术后严重并发症和术后C级胰瘘的危险因素分别为28、28和14个。发展队列中风险模型的受者操作特征曲线下面积,手术死亡率为0.759,严重并发症为0.712,术后胰瘘为0.699,与验证队列相当。校正图在两个队列中都是有利的。结论更新后的胰十二指肠切除术风险模型可用于预测手术死亡率、术后严重并发症和术后C级胰瘘。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Updated risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using data from the National Clinical Database in Japan

Updated risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using data from the National Clinical Database in Japan

Aim

Risk prediction models for mortality, severe postoperative complications, and postoperative pancreatic fistula in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy were established using data from the National Clinical Database more than a decade ago, and the surgical outcomes of pancreaticoduodenectomy have improved over the years. The aim of this study is to update the risk prediction model for pancreaticoduodenectomy using National Clinical Database data.

Methods

Between 2019 and 2021, the data of 35 365 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy and who were registered in the National Clinical Database were retrospectively analyzed. According to the registration year, the patients were divided into two cohorts: the development cohort (2019–2020; n = 23 654) and the validation cohort (2021; n = 11 711). Logistic regression analyses were performed to create risk models for surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula.

Results

Overall, the rates of surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula were 1.8%, 2.2%, and 1.3%, respectively. Logistic regression analyses revealed 28, 28, and 14 risk factors for surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk model in the development cohort was 0.759 for surgical mortality, 0.712 for severe complications, and 0.699 for postoperative pancreatic fistula, comparable to the validation cohort. The calibration plots were favorable in both cohorts.

Conclusion

The updated risk model for pancreaticoduodenectomy will be useful to predict surgical mortality, severe postoperative complications, and grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula.

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来源期刊
Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery
Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY-
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
11.10%
发文量
98
审稿时长
11 weeks
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