Too hot to handle? Governance, markets, and the slow burn of geothermal energy in Taiwan

Despite significant resource potential and ambitious targets, geothermal energy development in Taiwan remains limited. This study applies the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework to examine why diffusion has stalled, using process analysis and stakeholder interviews. Findings reveal that weak market incentives, high costs, regulatory barriers, and social resistance, especially in Indigenous areas, have created a proto-virtuous cycle where progress is sustained but insufficient for large-scale adoption. The study introduces this concept to explain incomplete innovation dynamics and proposes policy reforms, including risk sharing, streamlined governance, and inclusive stakeholder engagement. These insights highlight the need to align policy, market, and social factors to advance geothermal energy in Taiwan and inform similar energy transitions elsewhere.