Green colonialism or green transformation? The equity implications of clean hydrogen trade

The rapid expansion of bilateral hydrogen trade agreements has intensified debates over their implications for global economic and political relations. This study critically examines whether hydrogen trade fosters a ‘green transformation’—driving industrialization and economic autonomy in the Global South—or reinforces ‘green colonialism’—replicating historical patterns of resource extractivism and dependency. Drawing on a hermeneutic literature review and elite interviews, we critically analyse the competing mechanisms underlying these narratives. We identify three core risks of green colonialism: domination, accumulation, and appropriation. Conversely, we outline three strategic responses for fostering a green transformation: ensuring voice, obtaining a stake, and fostering autonomy. By positioning these perspectives in dialogue, we move beyond binary assessments, highlighting the tensions, contradictions, and possibilities embedded in the emerging clean hydrogen landscape. Our findings contribute to debates on post-colonial resource governance, energy transitions, and the geopolitics of sustainability, offering a lens to analyse the equity implications of trade and investment not only in hydrogen, but also in other resource sectors, including raw materials and biofuels.