Exploring the circular economy future of lithium-ion batteries in australia through comprehensive dynamic material flow analysis

Despite its dominant role as a major supplier of battery materials, Australia faces significant challenges in managing end-of-life (EoL) lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). With growing interest in establishing a circular economy of LIBs in Australia, robust quantitative analysis is urgently needed to inform policy and industrial actions. This study develops a dynamic, regionally-resolved material flow analysis (MFA) model to project the future LIB demand, EoL arisings, battery repurposing, and material recycling potential (MRP) across electric vehicles (EVs), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and handheld products in Australia. Results underscore the challenges of collecting handheld devices and the regional heterogeneity in battery waste volumes and compositions. The repurposing potential of EV batteries is projected to remain limited in this decade, but could significantly reduce and potentially eliminate battery imports to meet domestic BESS demand as early as 2038. The cumulative MRP for EoL LIBs would reach 2481–4471 kt in Australia between 2025 and 2050, with an estimated economic value of 23–44 billion US dollars. These findings highlight the importance of effective collection systems and regional differentiated EoL policies for LIBs, as well as significant opportunities in developing onshore repurposing and recycling capabilities in Australia.