{"title":"“一带一路”可再生能源项目外生风险评估","authors":"Xuan Zhao , Benhong Peng , Chaoyu Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101956","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Along the \"Belt and Road,\" renewable energy projects face exogenous risks. Given the multifaceted impact pathways through which these risks manifest, it is imperative to conduct timely and accurate assessments of such risks. This study endeavors to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system tailored to the exogenous risks associated with renewable energy projects along the \"Belt and Road\" route. By integrating the G1 and CRITIC methods for composite weighting, the study derives the comprehensive weight of each indicator within the system. This study acknowledges the inherent uncertainty characteristics of exogenous risks by employing the measurement uncertainty theory to assess project risk. This approach enables more precise quantification of uncertainty and incomplete information, empowering enterprises to respond to exogenous risks more effectively. The findings reveal that the exogenous risk-impact-response evaluation model not only effectively mitigates the subjectivity inherent in expert cognition but also adeptly manages the uncertainty and suddenness associated with the impact of exogenous risks on renewable energy projects. Consequently, this model assists enterprises in implementing timely risk prevention and management measures, thereby enhancing their resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101956"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Exogenous risk assessment of a Belt-and-Road renewable energy project\",\"authors\":\"Xuan Zhao , Benhong Peng , Chaoyu Zheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101956\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Along the \\\"Belt and Road,\\\" renewable energy projects face exogenous risks. Given the multifaceted impact pathways through which these risks manifest, it is imperative to conduct timely and accurate assessments of such risks. This study endeavors to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system tailored to the exogenous risks associated with renewable energy projects along the \\\"Belt and Road\\\" route. By integrating the G1 and CRITIC methods for composite weighting, the study derives the comprehensive weight of each indicator within the system. This study acknowledges the inherent uncertainty characteristics of exogenous risks by employing the measurement uncertainty theory to assess project risk. This approach enables more precise quantification of uncertainty and incomplete information, empowering enterprises to respond to exogenous risks more effectively. The findings reveal that the exogenous risk-impact-response evaluation model not only effectively mitigates the subjectivity inherent in expert cognition but also adeptly manages the uncertainty and suddenness associated with the impact of exogenous risks on renewable energy projects. Consequently, this model assists enterprises in implementing timely risk prevention and management measures, thereby enhancing their resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23554,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Utilities Policy\",\"volume\":\"95 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101956\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Utilities Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000712\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Utilities Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000712","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Exogenous risk assessment of a Belt-and-Road renewable energy project
Along the "Belt and Road," renewable energy projects face exogenous risks. Given the multifaceted impact pathways through which these risks manifest, it is imperative to conduct timely and accurate assessments of such risks. This study endeavors to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system tailored to the exogenous risks associated with renewable energy projects along the "Belt and Road" route. By integrating the G1 and CRITIC methods for composite weighting, the study derives the comprehensive weight of each indicator within the system. This study acknowledges the inherent uncertainty characteristics of exogenous risks by employing the measurement uncertainty theory to assess project risk. This approach enables more precise quantification of uncertainty and incomplete information, empowering enterprises to respond to exogenous risks more effectively. The findings reveal that the exogenous risk-impact-response evaluation model not only effectively mitigates the subjectivity inherent in expert cognition but also adeptly manages the uncertainty and suddenness associated with the impact of exogenous risks on renewable energy projects. Consequently, this model assists enterprises in implementing timely risk prevention and management measures, thereby enhancing their resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.
期刊介绍:
Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services.
Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.