Contrasting effects of climate and anthropogenic change on future invasion risk of a solitary bee Amegilla pulchra

Amegilla pulchra is a solitary bee from Australia that has recently been spread throughout many islands of the Pacific. The non-regulated human-driven spread of the species may affect the local pollinator communities and their interactions with host plants. We used an ecological niche modelling approach, accounting for non-equilibrium and anthropogenic spread with the most recently recommended methods, and predicted the potential spread of the species under current and future conditions. We expected climate change and increase in human density to offer new suitable environments for the spread of the species. Invasion risks will increase in the future overall, but more in the non-native regions compared to the native region. In the native region, the projected effect of future environmental change was highly contrasted, we projected invasion risk to increase in human-dense areas but decrease elsewhere. We identified high risks of invasion in eastern Asia and in the Caribbean region and provide a world ranking for surveillance priority which accounts for maritime traffic. This study highlights potential contrasted effects between climate and anthropogenic change, with differing projections between the native and the non-native regions. Public awareness and prevention will be key to prevent further spread and mitigate potential adverse effects of the species on island systems. In regions that are already invaded, we propose that habitat restoration is a promising strategy for both the mitigation of the spread and the conservation of local communities.