基于贝叶斯模型平均和增广自回归分布滞后的医院废物量建模方法。证据来自土耳其Dokuz Eylul大学医院

Nevzat Devebakan , Nijat Gasim , Alkan Durmus , Sakina Babashova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

医疗废物管理对全世界的卫生保健机构来说是一个日益严峻的挑战,特别是在发展中国家,如泰国,那里缺乏用于废物预测的系统计量经济模型。本研究旨在通过研究2019年1月至2023年12月Dokuz Eylul大学医院(DEUH)医疗废物产生的影响因素来解决这一差距。贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法用于选择计量经济模型的变量,而增强ardl分析协整,DOLS研究长期效应,傅立叶Todo-Yamamoto检验检验因果关系。研究发现,从长期来看,床位入住率(BOR)、床位周转率(BTOR)和住院天数(NDH)对医疗废弃物有显著的正向影响。相反,周期间隔(CI)和住院人数(NI)有负的影响,但统计上不显著。因果关系分析表明,BOR、CI、NDH、NI与WA之间存在单向关系,而BTOR与WA之间存在双向因果关系。这些结果表明,医疗废物的增加会影响医院的资源利用和效率。BTOR与WA的交互作用表明,高流失率会增加医疗废物,而废物的增加会影响医院的资源管理。本研究强调了医疗废物管理和医院运营的长期规划中BOR和BTOR的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bayesian Model Averaging and Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach for modeling hospital waste amount. Evidence from Dokuz Eylul University hospital in Turkiye
Medical waste management is a growing challenge for healthcare facilities worldwide, particularly in developing countries like Türkiye, where systematic econometric modeling for waste prediction is scarce. This study aims to address this gap by examining the factors influencing medical waste generation at Dokuz Eylul University Hospital (DEUH) from January 2019 to December 2023. The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach was used to select variables for the econometric model, while Augmented-ARDL analyzed co-integration, DOLS explored long-run effects, and the Fourier Todo-Yamamoto test examined causality relationships. The findings show that Bed Occupancy Rate (BOR), Bed Turnover Rate (BTOR), and Number of Days Hospitalized (NDH) have a statistically significant positive effect on medical waste in the long run. Conversely, Cycle Interval (CI) and Number of Inpatients (NI) have a negative but statistically insignificant effect. Causality analysis indicates a unidirectional relationship from BOR, CI, NDH, and NI to waste amount (WA), while there is bidirectional causality between BTOR and WA. These results suggest that increases in medical waste can impact hospital resource utilization and efficiency. The interaction between BTOR and WA indicates that high turnover may increase medical waste, while the increase in waste could affect hospital resource management. This study highlights the importance of BOR and BTOR in the long-term planning of medical waste management and hospital operations.
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