船舶碰撞风险模糊综合评价方法

IF 5.5 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Ke Cheng, Weifeng Li, Yanghua Zhou, Guoyou Shi, Xinjian Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

针对传统碰撞风险评估模型在近水环境下的局限性,提出了一种结合国际海上避碰规则(COLREGs)的新型碰撞风险指数(NCRI)。该模型建立了一个模糊动态椭圆船舶域(F-DESD),可根据船舶尺寸、航速、机动性和导航员经验动态调整域边界。它制定了将遭遇情况与colregs定义的责任(规则8-17)联系起来的参数,引入了近碰撞风险检测区域(Arena),并通过相对运动分析建立了双向风险评估框架,克服了传统单边责任分配方法的局限性。采用层次分析法(AHP)确定最接近点距离(DCPA)、最接近点时间(TCPA)、船间距离、相对方位和速比的动态权重,从而形成NCRI模型。利用宁波-舟山港AIS数据进行的实证验证表明,NCRI可用于评估近水区域的碰撞风险,并根据COLREGs和现实航行实践充分捕捉碰撞风险的水平和动态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A novel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for ship collision risk
In view of the constraints of conventional collision risk assessment models in near-water environments, this research presents a Novel Collision Risk Index (NCRI) incorporating the International Regulations for Collision Avoidance at Sea (COLREGs). The model establishes a Fuzzy Dynamic Elliptical Ship Domain (F-DESD) that dynamically adjusts domain boundaries based on vessel size, speed, maneuverability, and navigator experience. It formulates parameters linking encounter situations to COLREGs-defined responsibilities (rules 8–17), introduces a near-collision risk detection zone (Arena), and establishes a bidirectional risk assessment framework through relative motion analysis, overcoming limitations of traditional unilateral methods in liability allocation. Dynamic weights for DCPA (Distance of Closest Point of Approach), TCPA (Time to Closest Point of Approach), inter-vessel distance, relative bearing, and speed ratio are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), thereby forming the NCRI model. Empirical verification using AIS data from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port demonstrates that across crossing, overtaking, head-on, and complex encounter situations, the NCRI can be applied to assess collision risks in near-water domains, adequately capturing both the level and dynamics of collision risk in accordance with COLREGs and real-world navigational practices.
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来源期刊
Ocean Engineering
Ocean Engineering 工程技术-工程:大洋
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
34.00%
发文量
2379
审稿时长
8.1 months
期刊介绍: Ocean Engineering provides a medium for the publication of original research and development work in the field of ocean engineering. Ocean Engineering seeks papers in the following topics.
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