Ke Cheng, Weifeng Li, Yanghua Zhou, Guoyou Shi, Xinjian Wang
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A novel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for ship collision risk
In view of the constraints of conventional collision risk assessment models in near-water environments, this research presents a Novel Collision Risk Index (NCRI) incorporating the International Regulations for Collision Avoidance at Sea (COLREGs). The model establishes a Fuzzy Dynamic Elliptical Ship Domain (F-DESD) that dynamically adjusts domain boundaries based on vessel size, speed, maneuverability, and navigator experience. It formulates parameters linking encounter situations to COLREGs-defined responsibilities (rules 8–17), introduces a near-collision risk detection zone (Arena), and establishes a bidirectional risk assessment framework through relative motion analysis, overcoming limitations of traditional unilateral methods in liability allocation. Dynamic weights for DCPA (Distance of Closest Point of Approach), TCPA (Time to Closest Point of Approach), inter-vessel distance, relative bearing, and speed ratio are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), thereby forming the NCRI model. Empirical verification using AIS data from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port demonstrates that across crossing, overtaking, head-on, and complex encounter situations, the NCRI can be applied to assess collision risks in near-water domains, adequately capturing both the level and dynamics of collision risk in accordance with COLREGs and real-world navigational practices.
期刊介绍:
Ocean Engineering provides a medium for the publication of original research and development work in the field of ocean engineering. Ocean Engineering seeks papers in the following topics.