Beyond Emergency Measures: Assessing Preexisting Social Policy and Labor Program Expansion in Latin America During COVID-19

This study examines the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on preexisting cash transfers and labor programs across Latin America, analyzing their temporal expansion and identifying the determinants of changes in their generosity and coverage, with a particular focus on the inclusion of informal workers. The research employed two main analytical approaches, (1) inferential statistics (t-tests) to examine program expansion and its temporality across 17 Latin American countries, and (2) pooled time-series cross-section regression analysis with panel-corrected standard errors to investigate determinants of program transformations. The study focuses on two types of social assistance programs—conditional cash transfers and labor and productive inclusion programs. Data was collected for the period 2019–2022 period. Results show the region experienced an expansion in preexisting cash transfer programs, in addition to the previously documented growth in emergency cash transfer programs. No significant expansion was observed in labor and productive inclusion programs. Policy legacies emerged as the primary determinant for social policy transformations. While conditional cash transfer programs expanded, labor programs remained largely unchanged. The findings underscore the critical role of policy legacies in shaping the evolution of social assistance programs during the pandemic, particularly in their expansion to include informal workers.