Future of Three Endemic Woody Species of Colutea (Fabaceae) in a Changing Climate in Iran

Woody plants offer valuable services to ecosystems, including providing useful products, stabilizing ecosystems, and mitigating climate and pollution effects. However, they face significant abiotic and biotic stresses, with climate change being the most critical challenge. It is essential to understand that reducing populations of woody species, particularly those found only in a specific area, can have severe and irreversible effects on the entire ecosystem. Therefore, exploring the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of endemic woody species is an appealing subject for conservation researchers. This study investigates how climate change affects the distribution of three endemic species of woody plants in the genus Colutea in Iran. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the data, and the results showed that the model was effective for predicting the impact of climate change on the plants (AUC ≥ 0.9). The distribution of C. persica was significantly affected by solar radiation, Precipitation of Wettest Month, sand, and silt content. C. porphyrogamma's distribution was impacted by Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Precipitation of Driest Month, and Cation Exchange Capacity, while C. triphylla was most affected by Precipitation Seasonality, Precipitation of Driest Quarter, and Isothermality. According to the findings, the distribution of these species is expected to decrease in the 2050s and 2070s due to climate change, based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. These findings can be useful for developing strategies to manage the impacts of climate change on these species.