纽约州保释改革是否缓和了审前拘留对定罪率的影响？

IF 3.3 1区社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Criminal Justice Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2025.102418

Jingyi Hauck, Eunbyeor Sophie Yang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着纽约州保释改革的社会影响不断引发争论，本研究旨在探讨保释改革是否会调节审前拘留对定罪概率的影响，以及这种调节作用在纽约市（NYC）和非纽约市（non-NYC）地区之间是否存在差异。方法利用纽约州刑事司法服务部2019年和2022年的提审数据，采用倾向得分匹配（PSM）方法和适度分析来控制区域内和提审指控严重程度内释放和拘留群体之间的不平衡。采用加权逻辑回归估计平均边际效应来衡量调节效应。结果我们发现保释改革在纽约市具有显著的调节作用，保释改革通过降低定罪概率15%来削弱审前拘留的不利影响。我们的研究结果还表明，保释改革的调节作用确实因地区而异，其中纽约市被告比非纽约市被告受益明显更多。本研究表明，纽约州保释改革虽然是一项州级立法变革，但其影响因地区而异。我们的研究结果还表明，保释改革似乎有利于被告通过降低定罪的可能性。

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Does New York State bail reform moderate the impact of pretrial detention on conviction rates?

Purpose

As New York State (NYS) bail reform continues to instigate debates over its social impact, this study aims to examine 1) whether bail reform moderates the impact of pretrial detention on probability of conviction, and 2) whether such moderating effect differs by region between New York City (NYC) and non-New York City (non-NYC).

Methods

Using 2019 and 2022 arraignment data from New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services, we employ the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method with moderation analysis to control for imbalances between released and detained groups within region and within arraignment charge severity. Weighted logistic regression is used to estimate average marginal effect for measuring moderating effect.

Results

We find significant moderating effect of bail reform in NYC where bail reform weakens the adverse effect of pretrial detention through a 15% reduction in probability of conviction. Our results also show that the moderating effect of bail reform does differ by region where NYC defendants benefit significantly more than non-NYC defendants.

Conclusions

This study suggests that although NYS bail reform is a state-level legislative change, its impact varies by regions. Our results also demonstrate that bail reform seems to be beneficial for defendants through a lowered probability of conviction.

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来源期刊

Journal of Criminal Justice CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

6.90

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Criminal Justice is an international journal intended to fill the present need for the dissemination of new information, ideas and methods, to both practitioners and academicians in the criminal justice area. The Journal is concerned with all aspects of the criminal justice system in terms of their relationships to each other. Although materials are presented relating to crime and the individual elements of the criminal justice system, the emphasis of the Journal is to tie together the functioning of these elements and to illustrate the effects of their interactions. Articles that reflect the application of new disciplines or analytical methodologies to the problems of criminal justice are of special interest. Since the purpose of the Journal is to provide a forum for the dissemination of new ideas, new information, and the application of new methods to the problems and functions of the criminal justice system, the Journal emphasizes innovation and creative thought of the highest quality.