Trends and biases in the social cost of carbon

An updated and extended meta‐analysis confirms that the central estimate of the social cost of carbon is around $200–250/tC ($700–900/tCO2) with a large, right‐skewed uncertainty and trending up as ethical views have changed. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total impact of 2.5℃ warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if climate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the levels of output and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network of authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias may have pushed the social cost of carbon up.