基于修正Mann-Kendal检验和创新趋势分析的印度西孟加拉邦最西端降雨变率和动力的长期和短期时空特征

IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Geological Journal Pub Date : 2025-03-30 DOI:10.1002/gj.5187
Suman Mukherjee, Edris Alam, Manas Mondal, Subrata Haldar, Subhasis Bhattacharya, Md Kamrul Islam, Suman Paul
{"title":"基于修正Mann-Kendal检验和创新趋势分析的印度西孟加拉邦最西端降雨变率和动力的长期和短期时空特征","authors":"Suman Mukherjee,&nbsp;Edris Alam,&nbsp;Manas Mondal,&nbsp;Subrata Haldar,&nbsp;Subhasis Bhattacharya,&nbsp;Md Kamrul Islam,&nbsp;Suman Paul","doi":"10.1002/gj.5187","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>It has become important to understand the dynamic nature of hydro-meteorological phenomena, especially rainfall, as rainfall is considered to be the principal source of water in the hydrological cycle. Purulia, the westernmost district of West Bengal, India, is part of the Chotanagpur Plateau fringe with its undulating topography, varying slope, hard rock aquifer, limited surface and subsurface water resources, and sub-humid dry climate. Drought has been a recurring phenomenon for years, and the majority of its residents practise rain-fed agriculture, solely relying on the monsoonal rain. Therefore, it is crucial to study the nature and pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall. The objective of the study is to bring out the long-term nature of the rainfall trend along with the short term and to understand the characteristics of the rainfall over the region. This study has used the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided daily gridded rainfall dataset for 1961 to 2020, non-parametric Mann-Kendal (M-K) test, Modified version of M-K test, and Sen's slope estimator to determine the trend of rainfall in long-term and short-term time series; the recently developed approach, i.e., innovative trend analysis (ITA) is also applied to determine the underlying trend and its stability in the long-term time series. For the purpose of change point identification, this paper has applied the sequential version of M-K test (SQMK). Both the long term (1961–2020) and two short term (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) time series have been analysed annually and seasonally. To understand the long-term variation in the character of rainfall temporally and spatially, three indices, i.e., precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall deviation index (RDI) and modified Fournier index (MFI) have also been implemented. The ITA approach provides a better understanding of the trend as it can determine the trend whilst the M-K test failed to determine it in some cases. In contrast to the long-term (1961–2020) and first-half (1961–1990) series, the second half of the time step (1991–2020) had the largest falling trend; i.e., 90% of the total stations have recorded a downward trend during the monsoon season. PCI and RDI, as well as SSE, identified the western half of the district as being the driest, and MFI revealed that the eastern section of the district has high rainfall intensity. This study may help the planners and policymakers to frame policies for its people and their livelihood; the comprehension of the previous hints will be used to predict the future.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":12784,"journal":{"name":"Geological Journal","volume":"60 5","pages":"1065-1092"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Long Term and Short Term Spatio-Temporal Characterisation of Rainfall Variability and Dynamicity Over the Westernmost Part of West Bengal, India Using Modified Mann-Kendal Test and Innovative Trend Analysis\",\"authors\":\"Suman Mukherjee,&nbsp;Edris Alam,&nbsp;Manas Mondal,&nbsp;Subrata Haldar,&nbsp;Subhasis Bhattacharya,&nbsp;Md Kamrul Islam,&nbsp;Suman Paul\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/gj.5187\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n <p>It has become important to understand the dynamic nature of hydro-meteorological phenomena, especially rainfall, as rainfall is considered to be the principal source of water in the hydrological cycle. Purulia, the westernmost district of West Bengal, India, is part of the Chotanagpur Plateau fringe with its undulating topography, varying slope, hard rock aquifer, limited surface and subsurface water resources, and sub-humid dry climate. Drought has been a recurring phenomenon for years, and the majority of its residents practise rain-fed agriculture, solely relying on the monsoonal rain. Therefore, it is crucial to study the nature and pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall. The objective of the study is to bring out the long-term nature of the rainfall trend along with the short term and to understand the characteristics of the rainfall over the region. This study has used the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided daily gridded rainfall dataset for 1961 to 2020, non-parametric Mann-Kendal (M-K) test, Modified version of M-K test, and Sen's slope estimator to determine the trend of rainfall in long-term and short-term time series; the recently developed approach, i.e., innovative trend analysis (ITA) is also applied to determine the underlying trend and its stability in the long-term time series. For the purpose of change point identification, this paper has applied the sequential version of M-K test (SQMK). Both the long term (1961–2020) and two short term (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) time series have been analysed annually and seasonally. To understand the long-term variation in the character of rainfall temporally and spatially, three indices, i.e., precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall deviation index (RDI) and modified Fournier index (MFI) have also been implemented. The ITA approach provides a better understanding of the trend as it can determine the trend whilst the M-K test failed to determine it in some cases. In contrast to the long-term (1961–2020) and first-half (1961–1990) series, the second half of the time step (1991–2020) had the largest falling trend; i.e., 90% of the total stations have recorded a downward trend during the monsoon season. PCI and RDI, as well as SSE, identified the western half of the district as being the driest, and MFI revealed that the eastern section of the district has high rainfall intensity. This study may help the planners and policymakers to frame policies for its people and their livelihood; the comprehension of the previous hints will be used to predict the future.</p>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12784,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geological Journal\",\"volume\":\"60 5\",\"pages\":\"1065-1092\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geological Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gj.5187\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geological Journal","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gj.5187","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

了解水文气象现象,特别是降雨的动态性质变得非常重要,因为降雨被认为是水循环中的主要水源。Purulia是印度西孟加拉邦最西端的地区,是Chotanagpur高原边缘的一部分,其起伏的地形,多变的坡度,坚硬的岩石含水层,有限的地表和地下水资源,以及半湿润的干燥气候。干旱多年来一直是一个反复出现的现象,大多数居民实行雨养农业,完全依靠季风降雨。因此,研究年降水和季节降水的性质和模式是至关重要的。研究的目的是揭示降雨趋势的长期性和短期性,并了解该地区的降雨特征。本文利用印度气象部门(IMD)提供的1961 - 2020年逐日格点降水数据、非参数Mann-Kendal (M-K)检验、修正版M-K检验和Sen’s斜率估计,确定了降水长期和短期序列的趋势;最近发展的方法,即创新趋势分析(ITA)也被用于确定长期时间序列的潜在趋势及其稳定性。为了识别变化点,本文采用了序列版M-K检验(SQMK)。对长期(1961-2020年)和两个短期(1961-1990年和1991-2020年)时间序列进行了年度和季节性分析。为了解降雨特征的时空长期变化特征,采用降水浓度指数(PCI)、降雨偏差指数(RDI)和修正富尼耶指数(MFI) 3个指标进行分析。ITA方法可以更好地了解趋势,因为它可以确定趋势,而M-K测试在某些情况下无法确定趋势。与长期(1961-2020)和前半期(1961-1990)序列相比,时间步长的后半期(1991-2020)下降趋势最大;即90%的全站站在季风季节录得下降趋势。PCI、RDI和SSE均表明该区西半部最干旱,而MFI则表明该区东部降水强度较大。这项研究可以帮助规划者和决策者为其人民和他们的生计制定政策;对前面提示的理解将用于预测未来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Long Term and Short Term Spatio-Temporal Characterisation of Rainfall Variability and Dynamicity Over the Westernmost Part of West Bengal, India Using Modified Mann-Kendal Test and Innovative Trend Analysis

Long Term and Short Term Spatio-Temporal Characterisation of Rainfall Variability and Dynamicity Over the Westernmost Part of West Bengal, India Using Modified Mann-Kendal Test and Innovative Trend Analysis

It has become important to understand the dynamic nature of hydro-meteorological phenomena, especially rainfall, as rainfall is considered to be the principal source of water in the hydrological cycle. Purulia, the westernmost district of West Bengal, India, is part of the Chotanagpur Plateau fringe with its undulating topography, varying slope, hard rock aquifer, limited surface and subsurface water resources, and sub-humid dry climate. Drought has been a recurring phenomenon for years, and the majority of its residents practise rain-fed agriculture, solely relying on the monsoonal rain. Therefore, it is crucial to study the nature and pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall. The objective of the study is to bring out the long-term nature of the rainfall trend along with the short term and to understand the characteristics of the rainfall over the region. This study has used the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided daily gridded rainfall dataset for 1961 to 2020, non-parametric Mann-Kendal (M-K) test, Modified version of M-K test, and Sen's slope estimator to determine the trend of rainfall in long-term and short-term time series; the recently developed approach, i.e., innovative trend analysis (ITA) is also applied to determine the underlying trend and its stability in the long-term time series. For the purpose of change point identification, this paper has applied the sequential version of M-K test (SQMK). Both the long term (1961–2020) and two short term (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) time series have been analysed annually and seasonally. To understand the long-term variation in the character of rainfall temporally and spatially, three indices, i.e., precipitation concentration index (PCI), rainfall deviation index (RDI) and modified Fournier index (MFI) have also been implemented. The ITA approach provides a better understanding of the trend as it can determine the trend whilst the M-K test failed to determine it in some cases. In contrast to the long-term (1961–2020) and first-half (1961–1990) series, the second half of the time step (1991–2020) had the largest falling trend; i.e., 90% of the total stations have recorded a downward trend during the monsoon season. PCI and RDI, as well as SSE, identified the western half of the district as being the driest, and MFI revealed that the eastern section of the district has high rainfall intensity. This study may help the planners and policymakers to frame policies for its people and their livelihood; the comprehension of the previous hints will be used to predict the future.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Geological Journal
Geological Journal 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
11.10%
发文量
269
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: In recent years there has been a growth of specialist journals within geological sciences. Nevertheless, there is an important role for a journal of an interdisciplinary kind. Traditionally, GEOLOGICAL JOURNAL has been such a journal and continues in its aim of promoting interest in all branches of the Geological Sciences, through publication of original research papers and review articles. The journal publishes Special Issues with a common theme or regional coverage e.g. Chinese Dinosaurs; Tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean, Triassic basins of the Central and North Atlantic Borderlands). These are extensively cited. The Journal has a particular interest in publishing papers on regional case studies from any global locality which have conclusions of general interest. Such papers may emphasize aspects across the full spectrum of geological sciences.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信