债务可持续性和财政政策工具的有效性——以马尔代夫为例

IF 7.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI:10.1016/j.eap.2025.04.013

Paresh K. Narayan , Aminath Seema Ismail , Mohamed Imthinan Saudulla , Syed Aun R. Rizvi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了财政政策工具——削减支出与增税——对马尔代夫债务可持续性和经济增长的影响。使用结构向量自回归模型，我们评估了对债务的短期和长期影响。结果表明，税收管理有效地减少了债务，而政府支出削减在短期内的贡献相似，在长期内的贡献更大。相反，经济增长在短期内稳定了债务，但随着时间的推移会加剧债务。我们的研究结果强调了政策构成在可持续管理债务方面的重要性，强调了税收收入比支出调整对长期稳定的有效性。

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Debt sustainability and the effectiveness of fiscal policy tools - The case of the Maldives

This study examines the effects of fiscal policy tools—spending cuts versus tax hikes—on debt sustainability and economic growth in the Maldives. Using a structural vector autoregressive model, we assess short- and long-term impacts on debt. Results indicate that tax revenue management effectively reduces debt, while government spending cuts contribute similarly in the short term and significantly more in the long term. Economic growth, conversely, stabilizes debt in the short term but fuels it over time. Our findings highlight the importance of policy composition in managing debt sustainably, emphasizing the effectiveness of tax revenue over expenditure adjustments for long-term stability.

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来源期刊

Economic Analysis and Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

9.20%

发文量

231

审稿时长

93 days

期刊介绍： Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.