Maximising Eradication Potential of Rat Gene Drives Using a Two-Target Homing Rescue Strategy: Spatial Modelling of Empirical Data

Gene drives are genetic elements with positively biased transmission and may be useful tools to suppress mammalian pests that threaten biodiversity worldwide. While gene drives are progressing in mice, less is known about their potential for invasive rat control. A recent report has provided the first data on germline gene conversion in rats, demonstrating that modest homing rates (up to 67%) can be achieved in females. Here, we apply these empirically derived values to investigate the potential of various gene drive strategies to suppress an island population of 200,000 rats, using our stochastic, spatially explicit, individual-based modelling framework. Standard homing drives embedded in haplosufficient fertility or viability genes failed to eradicate, but achieved permanent population suppression. In contrast, a two-target design with a homing rescue (HR) drive embedded in a haplolethal gene that also targets an independent fertility or viability gene demonstrated considerable suppression potential. Remarkably, an HR drive targeting a haplosufficient female fertility gene showed robust eradication even at the relatively low homing rates previously demonstrated in rats. Interestingly, homing rate had a relatively low influence on eradication probability while cutting efficiency at the haplolethal gene was critical. Further, as long as the latter was similar to the cutting and subsequent knockout of the unlinked female fertility gene, then eradication could be achieved across a range of homing rates. Together, these results suggest that modest homing rates, such as have been demonstrated in rats and other species, can potentially be leveraged for population suppression, offering new opportunities for gene drive development.