自动化的风险有多可怕?来自大规模调查实验的证据

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Maria A. Cattaneo , Christian Gschwendt , Stefan C. Wolter
{"title":"自动化的风险有多可怕?来自大规模调查实验的证据","authors":"Maria A. Cattaneo ,&nbsp;Christian Gschwendt ,&nbsp;Stefan C. Wolter","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107034","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological advancements have always shaped labor markets; however, emerging AI innovations like ChatGPT are now putting occupations previously considered \"safe\" from technological substitution at significant risk of automation. This study examines individuals' willingness to pay to reduce automation risk, using a discrete-choice experiment conducted with nearly 6000 participants. Results reveal that respondents accept a salary reduction of almost 20 % of the Swiss median annual gross wage to reduce their automation risk by 10 percentage points or, conversely, demand a 20 % risk premium to accept an equivalent increase in automation risk. Interestingly, the study finds that WTP for risk reduction increases with higher baseline automation risk levels, contrary to patterns observed in other contexts. While preferences are generally homogeneous, differences exist between demographic groups. Men, younger and risk-tolerant individuals, and those with higher education show lower willingness to pay for reduced automation risk. By having respondents express preferences for hypothetical children, the study also explores potential gender biases, finding no significant differences in willingness to pay for reduced automation risk, educational degrees, hierarchical position, or wage based on the child's gender.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"235 ","pages":"Article 107034"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How scary is the risk of automation? evidence from a large-scale survey experiment\",\"authors\":\"Maria A. Cattaneo ,&nbsp;Christian Gschwendt ,&nbsp;Stefan C. Wolter\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107034\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Technological advancements have always shaped labor markets; however, emerging AI innovations like ChatGPT are now putting occupations previously considered \\\"safe\\\" from technological substitution at significant risk of automation. This study examines individuals' willingness to pay to reduce automation risk, using a discrete-choice experiment conducted with nearly 6000 participants. Results reveal that respondents accept a salary reduction of almost 20 % of the Swiss median annual gross wage to reduce their automation risk by 10 percentage points or, conversely, demand a 20 % risk premium to accept an equivalent increase in automation risk. Interestingly, the study finds that WTP for risk reduction increases with higher baseline automation risk levels, contrary to patterns observed in other contexts. While preferences are generally homogeneous, differences exist between demographic groups. Men, younger and risk-tolerant individuals, and those with higher education show lower willingness to pay for reduced automation risk. By having respondents express preferences for hypothetical children, the study also explores potential gender biases, finding no significant differences in willingness to pay for reduced automation risk, educational degrees, hierarchical position, or wage based on the child's gender.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48409,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"volume\":\"235 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107034\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001532\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001532","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

技术进步一直在塑造劳动力市场;然而,像ChatGPT这样的新兴人工智能创新,现在正使以前被认为“安全”、不会被技术取代的职业面临自动化的重大风险。本研究通过对近6000名参与者进行离散选择实验,考察了个人为降低自动化风险而付费的意愿。结果显示,受访者接受瑞士年度总工资中位数的近20%的减薪,以将自动化风险降低10个百分点,或者相反,要求20%的风险溢价,以接受自动化风险的等量增加。有趣的是,研究发现降低风险的WTP随着更高的自动化基线风险水平而增加,这与在其他环境中观察到的模式相反。虽然偏好大体上是同质的,但不同人口群体之间存在差异。男性、年轻人和风险承受能力强的人,以及受过高等教育的人,都表现出较低的为降低自动化风险买单的意愿。通过让受访者表达对假想孩子的偏好,该研究还探讨了潜在的性别偏见,发现在为降低自动化风险、教育程度、等级地位或基于孩子性别的工资支付意愿方面没有显著差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How scary is the risk of automation? evidence from a large-scale survey experiment
Technological advancements have always shaped labor markets; however, emerging AI innovations like ChatGPT are now putting occupations previously considered "safe" from technological substitution at significant risk of automation. This study examines individuals' willingness to pay to reduce automation risk, using a discrete-choice experiment conducted with nearly 6000 participants. Results reveal that respondents accept a salary reduction of almost 20 % of the Swiss median annual gross wage to reduce their automation risk by 10 percentage points or, conversely, demand a 20 % risk premium to accept an equivalent increase in automation risk. Interestingly, the study finds that WTP for risk reduction increases with higher baseline automation risk levels, contrary to patterns observed in other contexts. While preferences are generally homogeneous, differences exist between demographic groups. Men, younger and risk-tolerant individuals, and those with higher education show lower willingness to pay for reduced automation risk. By having respondents express preferences for hypothetical children, the study also explores potential gender biases, finding no significant differences in willingness to pay for reduced automation risk, educational degrees, hierarchical position, or wage based on the child's gender.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
9.10%
发文量
392
期刊介绍: The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信