米纳斯吉拉斯州因心力衰竭和急性心肌梗死而入院和死亡：时间序列分析

IF 1.4 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

Value in health regional issues Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI:10.1016/j.vhri.2025.101123

Priscila R. Cintra , Ryan R.O. de Paula , Luiz O.O. Pala PhD , Thelma Sáfadi PhD , Luciano J. Pereira PhD

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在巴西，心血管疾病（cvd）是造成近三分之一死亡的原因。时间序列研究有助于评估预防战略的有效性，并有助于健康规划。因此，本研究的目的是在考虑性别和合并症的情况下，对2016年至2022年米纳斯吉拉斯州20岁以上成年人因急性心肌梗死（AMI）和心力衰竭（HF）住院和死亡进行回顾性时间分析。方法数据来源于统一卫生系统医院信息系统。建立了带有外生变量的季节性自回归综合移动平均模型，以评估死亡时间序列中的季节性成分和/或干预措施。结果AMI住院90 670例，病死率0.085；HF住院178 477例，病死率0.100。男性主要经历AMI，而女性主要经历HF。我们发现冬季与AMI和HF住院率的增加相关。我们观察到，因呼吸系统疾病住院与心血管疾病的高风险相关。在大流行期间，我们观察到因心血管疾病住院的人数有所减少。2020年9月，我们观察到AMI导致的男性死亡人数显著增加。在女性中，我们发现因艾滋病住院与心衰死亡呈负相关。随着时间的推移，心衰住院率下降，而AMI住院率上升。结论呼吸系统疾病与心血管疾病风险增加相关。冬季期间因急性心肌梗死和心衰住院的人数增加。

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Admissions and Deaths Due to Heart Failure and Acute Myocardial Infarction in the State of Minas Gerais: Analysis of Time Series

Objectives

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for nearly one-third of the deaths in Brazil. Time-series studies help evaluate the effectiveness of prevention strategies and assist in health planning. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a retrospective temporal analysis, considering sex and comorbidities, of hospitalizations and deaths due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and heart failure (HF) among adults over 20 years of age in Minas Gerais from 2016 to 2022.

Methods

The data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables models were created to evaluate seasonal components and/or interventions in the time series of deaths.

Results

We recorded a total of 90 670 hospitalizations due to AMI, with a case fatality rate of 0.085, and 178 477 hospitalizations due to HF, with a case fatality rate of 0.100. Men predominantly experienced AMI, whereas women predominantly experienced HF. We found that winter periods correlated with an increase in hospitalizations due to AMI and HF. We observed that hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases were associated with a higher risk of CVD. During the pandemic, we observed a reduction in hospitalizations due to CVDs. In September 2020, we observed a significant increase in male deaths due to AMI. Among women, we found an inverse relationship between hospitalizations for AIDS and deaths from HF. Hospitalizations due to HF decreased over time, whereas those for AMI increased.