Evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of disaster resilience in rural areas of ecologically fragile zones —Empirical evidence from the upper Minjiang River, China

Geological disaster-prone areas have fragile ecological environments, complex human-land relations, and weak rural disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, so improving the resilience of villages to disasters is crucial to promoting sustainable development. The development of rural disaster resilience in mountains and the elements that influence it, however, have not received much attention in previous research. Therefore, this paper developed an index system for evaluating the resilience to rural disasters based on the PSR model, applied the system to the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, and revealed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the rural disaster resilience using the Standard deviational ellipse model, Spatial heterogeneity analysis, and identifying the key influencing factors through the Obstacle degree model. The results show that: (1) the average disaster resilience index (DRI) of the study area increased by 4.52 % from 2000 to 2020, but the average DRI was lower than 0.33, and the disaster resilience capacity was generally low; the disaster resilience of the countryside was greatly affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake, and the turning point affected by the elevation gradient at approximately 3,500 m. (2) The center of gravity of disaster resilience in the countryside shifts from northwest to southeast, with a total migration of 58.88 km; the features of spatial differentiation of DRI are obvious, and Moran’s I increases from 0.803 to 0.819, with the degree of spatial accumulation being continuously strengthened. (3) GDP (0.31), medical aid capacity (0.22), ecosystem service capacity (0.17), electricity consumption (0.16) and slope (0.10) are the key factors influencing the construction of disaster-ready resilience in the countryside of the study area, and the infrastructure should be improved and the ecosystem service capacity should be strengthened according to local conditions. The results of the study can provide decision support and reference for rural governance in the study area with similar regions, and promote the coordinated development of rural ecology-economy-society.