基于Budyko方程的驱动因子和径流敏感性对径流变化的量化影响

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113555

Ling Jia, Zuirong Niu, Dongyuan Sun, Shuanghe Liang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

驱动因子的变化可以直接影响径流变化，也可以通过径流敏感性系数间接改变径流变化。本研究突破了以往研究忽略径流敏感性系数动态变化的问题，将径流变化归结为径流敏感性系数和驱动因素。基于改进的Budyko方程，量化了径流敏感性系数对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：(1)1960 ~ 2022年，甘肃省主要河流年径流量由东南向西北递减，变化幅度为9.1 ~ 309.6 mm；显著减少的河流数量占75%。年径流量的突变年份主要集中在1970 ~ 2010年。(2) 1960—2022年，年降水量由东南向西北递减，年潜在蒸散量由东南向西北递增，年气温由东北向西南递减。1980 - 2020年土地利用转换频繁，转换面积占总面积的30%。(3)径流敏感性系数具有时空异质性。降水和下垫面特征参数是大多数河流径流敏感性系数变化的主要驱动因素。(4)除党江、石羊河和大同河外，其余9条河流径流变化的主要影响因素是径流敏感性系数的影响。人类活动是除疏勒河、党河和黑河流域外其他河流径流变化的主要原因。研究结果有助于把握径流变化对驱动因子的响应，为有效认识环境变化下径流变化的机制提供新的视角。

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Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation

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Quantifying the effects of driving factors and runoff sensitivity on runoff variation based on the Budyko equation

Changes in driving factors can directly impact runoff variation and indirectly alter it through the runoff sensitivity coefficients. This study has broken through the problem of ignoring the dynamic change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in previous studies, and attributed the runoff change to runoff sensitivity coefficients and driving factors. The contribution rate of runoff sensitivity coefficients to runoff change was quantified based on the improved Budyko equation. The results showed that: (1) From 1960 to 2022, the annual runoff of the main rivers in Gansu Province decreased from the southeast to the northwest, with a range of 9.1 mm- 309.6 mm. The number of significantly reduced rivers accounted for 75 %. The mutation years of annual runoff were mainly concentrated between 1970 and 2010. (2) From 1960 to 2022, the annual precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest, the annual potential evapotranspiration increased from southeast to northwest, and the annual temperature decreased from northeast to southwest. Land use conversion was frequent between 1980 and 2020, with a total conversion area of 30 %. (3) The runoff sensitivity coefficients had spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Precipitation and the characteristic parameters of the underlying surface were the main driving factors for the change of runoff sensitivity coefficients in most rivers. (4) In addition to the Dang River, Shiyang River, and Datong River, the primary factor contributing to the alteration in runoff in the remaining nine rivers was the impact of runoff sensitivity coefficients. Human activities were the main reason for the change of runoff in other rivers except for the Shule River, Dang River, and Heihe River Basin. The findings contribute to grasping the response of streamflow alterations to the driving factors and offer a new insight to effectively understand the mechanism of runoff variation under the changing environments.

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.