From fossil fuels to biofuels: Circular economy diversification for fossil fuel ports

As the world accelerates its renewable energy transition, fossil fuel ports risk becoming stranded assets if diversification strategies are not employed. This paper proposes a system dynamics model to investigate the potential for biofuel production in the Port of Newcastle, Australia, the world’s largest coal port. We integrate data on biowaste supply from the port’s hinterland and evaluate the concurrent demand for biofuels on local and national levels. Our model provides a dynamic and adaptable framework for assessing the feasibility of diversification within a port system. Our findings show that the Port of Newcastle, with its strategic location, infrastructure, and access to regional biowaste and biomass resources in the hinterland, has the potential to become a circular economy hub. A set of policy recommendations to guide regional stakeholders and policymakers towards a more sustainable port ecosystem is proposed.