Xue Yun , Lintao Zhang , Zhaopeng Fan , Yuxin Fu , Hua Guo
{"title":"1990年至2021年因跌倒导致的椎体骨折的全球、地区和国家负担及未来15年的预测:2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析","authors":"Xue Yun , Lintao Zhang , Zhaopeng Fan , Yuxin Fu , Hua Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.archger.2025.105874","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study utilized the latest data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability due to vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021, providing information for effective management and prevention strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study describes the trends in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to vertebral fractures caused by falls. It employs methods such as the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, joinpoint regression analysis, and decomposition analysis for further investigation, and calculates the ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR. Finally, it predicts the incidence trend for the next 15 years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In 2021, the number of new cases of vertebral fractures due to falls globally reached 4.7 million, with a total prevalence of 3.67 million cases, and years lived with disability (YLDs) amounted to 370,000. Compared to 1990, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was -0.37 (-0.41, -0.32), -0.35 (-0.39, -0.31), and -0.37 (-0.41, -0.33) respectively, indicating a declining trend. There are significant differences in the disease burden among different countries and regions. The APC model, Joinpoint model, and ARIMA forecasting model indicate a global declining trend in the disease burden of vertebral fractures.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Although the burden of vertebral fractures is on a downward trend, it continues to increase in low and middle SDI regions, as well as among the elderly population. Therefore, targeted preventive measures are still necessary to address the health outcomes related to vertebral fractures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8306,"journal":{"name":"Archives of gerontology and geriatrics","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 105874"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional, and national burden of vertebral fractures due to falls from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for the next 15 years: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease 2021 study\",\"authors\":\"Xue Yun , Lintao Zhang , Zhaopeng Fan , Yuxin Fu , Hua Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.archger.2025.105874\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study utilized the latest data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability due to vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021, providing information for effective management and prevention strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study describes the trends in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to vertebral fractures caused by falls. It employs methods such as the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, joinpoint regression analysis, and decomposition analysis for further investigation, and calculates the ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR. Finally, it predicts the incidence trend for the next 15 years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In 2021, the number of new cases of vertebral fractures due to falls globally reached 4.7 million, with a total prevalence of 3.67 million cases, and years lived with disability (YLDs) amounted to 370,000. Compared to 1990, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was -0.37 (-0.41, -0.32), -0.35 (-0.39, -0.31), and -0.37 (-0.41, -0.33) respectively, indicating a declining trend. There are significant differences in the disease burden among different countries and regions. The APC model, Joinpoint model, and ARIMA forecasting model indicate a global declining trend in the disease burden of vertebral fractures.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Although the burden of vertebral fractures is on a downward trend, it continues to increase in low and middle SDI regions, as well as among the elderly population. Therefore, targeted preventive measures are still necessary to address the health outcomes related to vertebral fractures.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8306,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Archives of gerontology and geriatrics\",\"volume\":\"135 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105874\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-04-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Archives of gerontology and geriatrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167494325001311\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Archives of gerontology and geriatrics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167494325001311","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global, regional, and national burden of vertebral fractures due to falls from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for the next 15 years: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease 2021 study
Objectives
This study utilized the latest data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability due to vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021, providing information for effective management and prevention strategies.
Methods
This study describes the trends in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to vertebral fractures caused by falls. It employs methods such as the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, joinpoint regression analysis, and decomposition analysis for further investigation, and calculates the ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR. Finally, it predicts the incidence trend for the next 15 years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
Results
In 2021, the number of new cases of vertebral fractures due to falls globally reached 4.7 million, with a total prevalence of 3.67 million cases, and years lived with disability (YLDs) amounted to 370,000. Compared to 1990, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was -0.37 (-0.41, -0.32), -0.35 (-0.39, -0.31), and -0.37 (-0.41, -0.33) respectively, indicating a declining trend. There are significant differences in the disease burden among different countries and regions. The APC model, Joinpoint model, and ARIMA forecasting model indicate a global declining trend in the disease burden of vertebral fractures.
Conclusions
Although the burden of vertebral fractures is on a downward trend, it continues to increase in low and middle SDI regions, as well as among the elderly population. Therefore, targeted preventive measures are still necessary to address the health outcomes related to vertebral fractures.
期刊介绍:
Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics provides a medium for the publication of papers from the fields of experimental gerontology and clinical and social geriatrics. The principal aim of the journal is to facilitate the exchange of information between specialists in these three fields of gerontological research. Experimental papers dealing with the basic mechanisms of aging at molecular, cellular, tissue or organ levels will be published.
Clinical papers will be accepted if they provide sufficiently new information or are of fundamental importance for the knowledge of human aging. Purely descriptive clinical papers will be accepted only if the results permit further interpretation. Papers dealing with anti-aging pharmacological preparations in humans are welcome. Papers on the social aspects of geriatrics will be accepted if they are of general interest regarding the epidemiology of aging and the efficiency and working methods of the social organizations for the health care of the elderly.