Predicting the potential geographical distribution of peatlands in Northeast China based on the ensemble model

Peatlands are vital carbon sinks and unique ecosystems which are highly sensitive to global climate change. Predicting their spatial distribution under current and future climate scenarios is essential for effective conservation and management. In this study, we developed an ensemble model using multiple algorithms to predict the dynamic distribution of suitable peatland areas in Northeast China under current and future climate conditions. The ensemble model demonstrated strong performance, achieving Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.937 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.828. Our results indicate that the current suitable peatland area in Northeast China is 97,100 km². These areas are primarily located in the valleys and along the riverbanks of the Greater Khingan Mountain Region and the Changbai Mountains Region, with relatively fewer suitable areas in the Lesser Khingan Mountain Region and the Sanjiang Plain. Under future climate change, peatlands in Northeast China face a significant risk of degradation, especially under the high emission SSP585 scenario. Climate factors, especially the mean diurnal temperature range and the max temperature of the warmest month, have a significant impact on the distribution of suitable peatland areas. Additionally, factors such as soil pH, the freeze-thaw process, topography, and regional water retention capacity also play crucial roles in determining peatland suitability. Our findings provide an important foundation for better management and sustainable development of peatland resources.