汽油价格，汽油价格预期，以及美国的通货膨胀预期

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108508

Puneet Vatsa , Gabriel Pino , Adam Clements

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们使用部分识别的贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型分析了汽油价格冲击是否以及在多大程度上影响了美国的总体通胀、一年汽油价格通胀预期和一年通胀预期。结果显示，总体通胀和一年期通胀预期在汽油价格冲击的影响下立即上升，对一年期通胀预期的影响要持久得多。对一年期汽油价格通胀预期的影响明显不同。尽管这些预期最初有所增加，但在金融危机爆发两个月后有所下降，影响随后很快消散。方差分解显示，汽油价格冲击分别解释了66.18%、12.06%和22.42%的总体通胀、一年汽油价格通胀预期和一年通胀预期的变化。

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Gasoline prices, gasoline price expectations, and inflation expectations in the United States

We analyze whether and to what extent gasoline price shocks influenced headline inflation, one-year gasoline price inflation expectations, and one-year inflation expectations in the United States using a partially identified Bayesian structural vector autoregression model. Results show that headline inflation and one-year inflation expectations increased instantaneously in response to gasoline price shocks, with the effects on one-year inflation expectations being considerably more persistent. The effects on one-year gasoline price inflation expectations were noticeably different. Although these expectations increased initially, they declined two months after the shock, with the effects dissipating shortly thereafter. Variance decomposition reveals that gasoline price shocks explained 66.18 %, 12.06 %, and 22.42 % of the variation in headline inflation, one-year gasoline price inflation expectations, and one-year inflation expectations, respectively.

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.