Asymmetric behavior of average temperature and rainfall on rice production in Bangladesh

In light of today's scenario of global food security, developing economies need to meticulously monitor both the immediate and future influence of climate change on agricultural operations, as well as the possibility of perpetual adaptation. Regarding this issue, this inquiry aims to identify the asymmetrical behaviors of average temperature and rainfall on Bangladesh's rice yield. After assessing data from 1985 to 2021, the NARDL affirms that, although changes in average temperature hurt long-term yields of rice, they stimulate short-term production. In the short term, rainfall shocks, whether positive or negative, significantly boost rice yield, but in the long run, they have no significant influence. Conversely, carbon dioxide emissions have negative effects on rice output in the long run. Using fertilizer for longer periods augments rice yield in the long and short term. As part of policy suggestions, the government should compensate organic fertilizer users and stimulate sustainable behaviors to control average temperature and carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh.