High-Profile Corruption Convictions, Government Reactions, and Public Approval: A Comparative Analysis Across Levels of Democracy

This study investigates the political effects of corruption convictions involving former heads of government. Drawing on an original dataset of convictions and annual, nationally representative surveys covering over 130 countries from 2006 to 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to analyze how these events shape government approval. Our findings indicate a notable contrast: in less democratic countries, convictions boost support for the government, whereas their effect is negligible in more democratic contexts. We reveal a key mechanism behind this divergence by showing how incumbent governments respond differently to the convictions. In less democratic settings, governments exploit corruption convictions by emphasizing the personal virtues of their leaders. Beyond identifying this critical condition that prompts political elites to adopt personalistic appeals, we also demonstrate how these appeals resonate with the public. These findings have implications for debates on the consequences of anti-corruption efforts and their relationship with populism.