Navigating political uncertainty and mineral policy: Pathways to Global South’s environmental sustainability

This article explores the relationship between political uncertainty and carbon emissions across 34 Global South countries from 2000 to 2023, uncovering key links between policy stability and environmental sustainability. By employing the year- and country-fixed effects model alongside generalized least squares with panel corrected standard errors, this analysis highlights the impact of political instability on environmental outcomes. Robustness checks—conducted via the generalized method of moments and a dynamic linear panel model—further confirm the consistency and reliability of the results. The findings reveal that political uncertainty significantly elevates carbon emissions and follows a nonlinear pattern: moderate political uncertainty tends to stimulate economic activity, resulting in higher emissions, while extreme uncertainty curtails economic activity, thereby reducing emissions. Moreover, a positive interaction between political uncertainty and mineral policy signals increased resource extraction in politically unstable settings. Conversely, interactions with technological innovation and energy transition display significant negative effects, suggesting that technological advancement and renewable energy adoption effectively counteract emissions growth under high political uncertainty. This study provides new insights into the distinct political and economic dynamics influencing environmental challenges in Global South countries, emphasizing the crucial role of technological innovation and energy transition in mitigating the environmental impacts of political instability.