Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways

This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between “hard to decarbonize” and “hard to model” has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.