Details and Mechanisms of Permafrost Ground Deformation on the Tibetan Plateau Revealed by GNSS-IR and In Situ Hydrothermal Monitoring

This study employs the Global Navigation Satellite System-Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technique, along with in situ hydrothermal data, to explore the details and mechanisms of permafrost ground surface deformation in the hinterland Tibetan Plateau. Through analyzing GNSS data collected from November 2021 to April 2024, seasonal deformation of up to approximately 5 cm, caused by active layer freeze-thaw cycles, was identified. Additionally, more than 2 years of continuous monitoring revealed a clear ground subsidence rate of 2.7 cm per year due to permafrost thawing. We compared the GNSS-IR monitored deformation with simulated deformation using in situ soil moisture and temperature profiles at 5–220 cm depth and found that the correlation reached 0.9 during the active-layer thawing and freezing period; we also observed that following an exceptionally thawing season, the subsequent thawing season experiences notably greater thaw subsidence. Furthermore, we analyzed the differences in GNSS-IR monitoring results with and without the inclusion of Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) signals, and found that the inclusion of BDS signals reduced the standard deviation of GNSS-IR results by an average of 0.24 mm on snow-free periods, but increased by an average of 0.12 mm during the snow cover periods. This may be due to the longer wavelength of the BDS signal, which exhibits greater diffraction through snow and reduces signal reflectivity compared to other satellite systems. The research results demonstrate the potential and ability of continuous GNSS-IR ground surface deformation monitoring in revealing and exploring the hydrothermal processes within permafrost under climate change.