Comprehensive analysis of factors influencing EU-countries household energy consumption (2000–2022): Trends and vulnerability to COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war

Recent global crises, such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War, have accelerated efforts to reduce dependency to fossil fuels due to soaring prices. This research aims to identify the key factors such as climate, electricity and gas price, GDP, renewable energy use, population and COVID-19 influencing household energy consumption in EU countries, particularly in the context of recent crises such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Research starts with trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's Slope estimator, then Tukey test, followed by the examination of household panel data from EU countries spanning 2000 to 2022 using static and dynamic panel models including Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The MK test reveals a significant upward trend in gas prices, while gas usage shows mixed trends in natural gas consumption and electricity usage generally increases across EU countries. The Tukey test reveals substantial shifts in pricing of gas and electricity trends influenced by external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, renewable energy consumption emerged as significant, indicating a noteworthy increase in renewable energy utilization among EU-24 countries. Static FGLS model findings indicate significant effects of various factors on gas consumption, such as Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), Renewables use, Electricity price, Population, and GDP lead to corresponding increases in gas consumption. On the contrary, electricity consumption and gas prices lead to decreases in gas consumption. Similarly, HDD, CDD, gas price, population, and GDP have positive effects on electricity consumption. Meanwhile, increase in gas consumption and electricity price lead to decreases in electricity consumption. Dynamic model results differ slightly, HDD, CDD, GDP, and the dummy variable (COVID-19) contribute to an increase in gas consumption in the EU household sector. Meanwhile, according to the system GMM, electricity prices and gas prices lead to a decrease in gas consumption. However, CDD, gas consumption, and the dummy variable tend to increase electricity consumption. In the dynamic model, only gas prices contribute to a decrease in electricity consumption. In summary, the research offers valuable insights into factors influencing energy consumption in EU countries, suggesting implications for policy and future research directions in energy economics and sustainability.